Watch these two important levels in the stock market to see which way
The stock market’s spin masters are working overtime persuading gullible investors to put money into equities.
The Federal Reserve’s money printing and the government’s support have injected confidence into the market. But those actions come at a steep cost. And make no mistake that in the end, the rich will benefit the most. The average Joe or Jane is not a meaningful investor.
Under these circumstances, what should prudent stock market investors do? At this time, consider keeping a close watch on two important stock market levels and also on the tail risk to the “mother of support zones.” Let’s explore with the help of a chart.
Chart
Please click here for an annotated chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA,
which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
Note the following:
• The chart is monthly, giving investors a long-term perspective.
• The chart shows that the stock market has pulled back in the middle of the support/resistance zone.
• The support/resistance zone shown on the chart is a battleground zone.
• Investors should watch the lower band of the support/resistance zone, which is around the Dow level of 24,000 points. The equivalent in the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
is 2,900.
• If the levels given above are decisively broken, the middle support zone shown on the chart will come into play.
• The chart shows that in March the stock market touched the upper band of the mother of support zones before staging a strong rally.
• Investors should not ignore the tail risk of the stock market approaching the mother of support zones again, even though the mother of support zones is far away at this time. In plain English, tail risk means an event with a low probability.
• On the upside, investors may want to keep a watch on the upper band of the support resistance zone, which is around 26,720 in the Dow.
• The chart shows that RSI is rolling over and is close to giving a sell signal. But a sell signal has not yet been given.
• Investors have been hiding in five big tech stocks: Apple
AAPL,
Amazon
AMZN,
Microsoft
MSFT,
Alphabet
GOOG,
GOOGL,
and Facebook
FB,
It is important to keep watch on all five of them. Facebook is now coming under attack by advertisers objecting to its lack of control over hateful content. The objections may end up negatively affecting Google as well as Twitter
TWTR,
For the long-term investor, meaningful dips in Facebook, Google and Twitter will likely provide buying opportunities.
• Expect some selling from portfolio rebalancing and then buying from new-quarter…
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