Wisconsin’s Democratic Senate primary could be referendum on Biden

On Aug 24, 2021

Wisconsin‘s next Senate election isn’t until Nov. 8, 2022, but already there are 11 candidates vying for the Democratic nomination in a party primary that could prove to be an early referendum on President Joe Biden.

Political observers told ABC News that generational changes and other factors at play in the August 2022 primary also have implications for next year’s midterm congressional elections.

Wisconsin is considered a state that can often swing either Democrat and Republican. In 2020, the state was split 49% for Biden and 49% for Trump, with Biden holding a narrow lead of around 20,000 votes, according to ABC News’ election results.

The seat up for grabs is now held by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, and Democrats hope to flip it as they try to maintain control of the Senate.

There are currently 11 candidates in the Democratic primary:

Adam Murphy, a business consultant

Alex Lasry, an executive for the Milwaukee Bucks (on leave) and host committee chair for the 2020 Democratic National Convention

Chantia Lewis, an alderwoman in Milwaukee

Darrell Williams, Wisconsin’s Emergency Management Administrator

Gillian Battino, a radiologist

Kou Lee, a restaurant owner

Mandela Barnes, Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin

Peter Peckarsky, an attorney

Sarah Godlewski, Wisconsin’s State Treasurer

Steven Olikara, founder and former CEO of the Millennial Action Project advocacy organization

Tom Nelson, County Executive of Wisconsin’s Outagamie County

Among the highest-profile candidates is Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who launched his campaign in early August.

One of Barnes’ competitors in the Senate primary, Wisconsin State Sen. Chris Larson, dropped out of the race and endorsed Barnes. When a candidate drops out, that can be a sign that party support is beginning to coalesce around a different candidate, Julia Azari, Assistant Chair of the Department of Political Science at Marquette University in Milwaukee, told ABC News.

“It seems like the progressive community in Wisconsin is behind Barnes,” Azari said.

Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry also is high profile – especially after the team’s championship win earlier this year — and has a formidable war chest. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, meanwhile, has experience bridging partisan divides, as a Democrat elected in a county that has voted twice for Trump.

But given how well-known Barnes is in the state, is he a shoo-in as the party’s Senate pick?

Political science professor Barry Burden of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who directs the school’s Elections Research Center, told ABC News that “no one’s a shoo-in, nope. Barnes has a lot of advantages … but he has some liabilities, too.”

He said those include controversy over whether Barnes misled people over when he received his college degree, or complaints that he…