How many voters will stick with Biden?

Responding to the deaths of 13 service members and the wounding of 18 others in Afghanistan, President BidenJoe BidenUS evacuates all Afghan embassy staff: report Biden visits FEMA headquarters as Ida slams New Orleans Romney: Afghanistan crisis the fault of both Biden, Trump administrations MORE stated the obvious: “Been a tough day.” Eight months into his presidency, these are tough days. Our withdrawal from Afghanistan is “messy,” as Biden has ruefully acknowledged. COVID-19 is filling up hospital beds and intensive care units. The Supreme Court has reversed Biden executive orders on immigration and rent relief. Biden’s honeymoon, such as it was, is over.        

Low polling numbers often show how many people stick with you through good times and bad. Back in 1992, Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonBiden continues Trump’s flirtation with complacency Monica Lewinsky fears ‘being misunderstood again’ with ‘American Crime Story: Impeachment’ Is Biden’s budget too much for the IRS? Not even close MORE was beset by a series of scandals that pundits believed would surely end his presidential bid. In a 1970 letter to his draft board, Clinton wrote that people “have come to find themselves still loving their country but loathing the military,” stating he would not serve in order to maintain his “political viability within the system.” Shortly thereafter, Gennifer Flowers divulged telephone conversations that appeared to confirm Clinton’s 12-year extramarital affair with her. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Clinton pleaded with voters to make the election about them, not him, promising, “I’ll be there for you until the last dog dies.” Clinton’s second place finish made him “the comeback kid.”

Being there until the last dog dies has become a political mantra for measuring presidential support. Barely into his first term, Clinton hit several low points. In 1993, he authorized the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy for gays in the military. As Clinton recalled, “In the short run, I got the worst of both worlds — I lost the fight [to openly admit gays in the military], and the gay community was highly critical of me for the compromise.” 

That same year Clinton introduced his sweeping overhaul of the health care system. Both were deeply unpopular. Gallup found 55 percent disapproved of Clinton’s handling of gay rights, and 58 percent disliked his health care proposal. By June 1993, Clinton’s job approval sank to 37 percent. The next year Republicans seized control of Congress.

Like Clinton, Joe Biden has run into strong headwinds. A recent NBC News poll found Biden’s approval rating fell from a healthy 53 percent approve/39 percent disapprove in April to 49 percent approve/48 percent disapprove. The survey contained several ominous warnings. Only 25 percent liked Biden’s management of Afghanistan; support for his control of the coronavirus pandemic fell 16 points to 53 percent; and…