Shang-Chi doesn’t have a release date in China, why that’s a big deal

When “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” debuts in theaters Friday, it will be the first time a Marvel film will be shown exclusively in cinemas since the pandemic began, but it is its absence in a key international market that has box-office analysts talking.

“Shang-Chi” is the first film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe not to be granted approval for distribution in China, and only the second not to be released in the country. The underlying controversy seems to stem from the film’s casting and the perception of the comic book series that “Shang-Chi” is based on.

The absence from the Chinese box office means “Shang-Chi” is leaving a large sum of money on the table. Since 2012’s “The Avengers,” China has been the second-highest grossing box office for all Marvel movies, just behind the U.S. and Canada.

With a theater-only release and ties to a 24-movie blockbuster franchise, there’s little doubt that “Shang-Chi” will top this weekend’s box office in the U.S. and Canada. It may even stake its claim on becoming the highest Labor Day weekend opening of all time.

But China is a key market for its size. Prior to the pandemic, China was the second-largest box office in the world, garnering $8.67 billion in annual ticket sales, according to data from Comscore. In addition, delays in releasing popular films in China often expose a movie to higher levels of piracy.

“Marvel is a franchise with immense appeal virtually everywhere, and these films have owed a considerable portion of their international box office success to the ticket sales China generates,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com. “Anywhere from 10% to 20% of worldwide grosses on a Marvel movie can come from the Middle Kingdom alone.”

Marvel has hit that benchmark since 2013. In the early years of the Marvel franchise, China accounted for between 2% and 6% of total box-office sales.

For the 2019 release of “Avengers: Endgame,” Disney scheduled the debut for domestic and Chinese audiences on the same weekend. The result was the highest opening weekend haul in cinematic history. Over its run, 22% of ticket sales came from China.

“The growth of the Chinese theatrical movie market over the past decade has been impressive; essentially tripling in terms of revenue since 2012 and becoming a key destination for many American blockbusters that often rely on the country’s box office earnings power to take them to the next level,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

Heading into its domestic debut, “Shang-Chi” will not benefit from these ticket sales, as it has not yet been approved for release in China by government officials. The region does not operate a free market for cinema and all foreign-made films must pass censorship in order to be distributed locally.

China has strict rules on content and suppresses anything that it believes violates its core socialist values or…