Can Biden make a comeback? What history teaches us (and doesn’t)

August was a cruel month for President BidenJoe BidenSocial media making political polarization worse: report Biden and UK’s Johnson to meet for talks this month: report Toyota, Honda knock union-made EV incentive in Dems’ spending package MORE. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was messy, while here at home the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report was far below expectations. Cases of COVID-19 hit the 40 million mark, and more than 650,000 people have died of the virus. A Washington Post/ABC News poll found Biden’s disapproval rating rising to 51 percent, up from 42 percent in April.

Afghanistan has certainly contributed to Biden’s downward slide, with 60 percent disliking how he handled that issue. Biden also experienced serious erosion on two other key concerns. Since April, approval of his economic management fell seven points to 45 percent, while support for his handling of the pandemic plunged 12 points to 52 percent. Only two presidents at this early stage have seen their overall approval numbers fall into negative territory: Donald TrumpDonald TrumpHouse Democrats eye 26.5 percent corporate tax rate Iran accepts deal on nuclear monitoring, avoids censure Old South vs. the new America: What Confederate monuments say about us MORE and Joe Biden.

History teaches us that presidents whose ratings plummet can recover. Harry S. Truman took office after the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945. Americans rallied behind him with 87 percent expressing support. But one year later, Truman’s job approval fell to a paltry 27 percent. Americans were fed up with labor strikes, meat shortages and Truman’s inability to cope. Republicans took control of Congress, with the party poised to win the White House. But Truman did not give up, and in 1948 he rallied voters against a “Do Nothing Congress” and won a stunning upset. At the start of his second term, Truman’s approval rating was back to a robust 69 percent.

At the start of 1986, 72 percent liked Ronald Reagan job performance. But the Iran-Contra affair changed all that. The exposure of illegal sales of arms to Iran in return for the release of U.S. hostages, with the proceeds benefitting the Nicaraguan Contras, saw Reagan’s approval numbers fall 25 points to 47 percent. Sixty-two percent disapproved how Reagan handled that controversy. But arms control agreements with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that helped end what Reagan called the “Evil Empire” boosted his ratings. By November 1988, Reagan’s job approval stood at a healthy 60 percent — enough to propel his vice president, George H.W. Bush, into the White House.

In 1993, Bill ClintonWilliam (Bill) Jefferson ClintonWhat’s at stake — and in play — for the midterms Without drastic changes, Democrats are on track to lose big in 2022 Bidens, former presidents mark 9/11 anniversary MORE entered office with 58 percent public support. But Clinton’s big government health care plan, coupled with his “don’t ask,…