US stock market faces risk of bumpy autumn, Wall Street analysts warn

After a record-breaking bull run for the U.S. stock market this year, many Wall Street analysts are starting to warn that investors could be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks and months.

Analysts at firms including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. published notes this month cautioning about current risks in the U.S. equity market. With the S&P 500 already hitting 54 records this year through Thursday—the most during that period since 1995—several analysts said that they believe there is a growing possibility of a pullback or, at the least, flatter returns.

Behind that cautious outlook, the researchers said, is a combination of things, including euphoric investment sentiment, extended valuations and anticipation that inflation and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on corporate margins.

In a Wednesday note, strategists at BofA Securities said they saw little to be excited about, asking, “What good news is left?” They added, “A lot of optimism is already priced in.”

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In the note, the Bank of America team led by Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, moved its year-end price target for the S&P 500 price to 4250—a 4.7% reduction from the 4458.58 level at which the benchmark index closed Friday. For 2022, Bank of America set a 4600 price target for the end of the year.

The analysts’ cautious outlook for U.S. stocks presents a contrast to the so-called TINA—or “There Is No Alternative”—motto that has dominated investors’ outlook for much of the past year. Because yields on other assets such as bonds have been so low, many investors have justified their continuous bullish positioning in stocks. Accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve has provided a continuous boost for equities this year, too, as has the lure of big investment returns from a swath of companies, ranging from meme stocks to Covid-19 beneficiaries.

In their September notes, however, some strategists said they were looking at other parts of the market for future gains. In a note last week, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that they were downgrading their rating on U.S. equities to “underweight,” saying they prefer stocks in Europe and Japan and view cash as increasingly attractive to hold.

“We expect an understandable level of eye-rolling as we move overweight cash,” the Morgan Stanley team including Andrew Sheets wrote in the note, adding the caveat that select international equities and other assets are attractive relative to cash. The note continued, “Morgan Stanley strategists forecast cash to outperform U.S. equities, government bonds and credit over the next 12 months.”

Parts of Morgan Stanley’s forecast are being put to work at New York Life Investments, the investment…