Early predictions call for fewer deals, delays

Shoppers have shown an eagerness to spend on new clothes, electronics and jewelry, in recent months — and retail analysts are betting that splurging will fuel the holiday season.

Holiday forecasts from three different firms have predicted a sharp jump in year-over-year spending. Sales in November and December are expected to grow 7% compared with a year ago and reach $800 billion, according to Bain. Deloitte sees holiday retail sales climbing 7% to 9%, better than the 5.8% increase it tracked in 2020. A forecast by Mastercard SpendingPulse said holiday retail sales should rise 7.4% from a year earlier and climb 11.1% on a two-year basis, fueled by a rebound in in-store shopping and persistent consumer demand.

Retailers echoed similar expectations. Home Depot, for instance, said it sold out of an early release of Halloween decorations — an indicator that shoppers may have a big appetite for Christmas decorations, too.

Dick’s Sporting Goods said Monday it would hire the largest number of seasonal associates in the company’s history for the 2021 holiday season.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said the pandemic may inspire families to look forward to the holidays even more. The big-box retailer said early this month it would hire 20,000 supply chain employees, such as freight handlers and lift drivers, to keep up with demand during the busy shopping season and beyond.

“Customers, families want to celebrate Christmas,” McMillon said at a virtual conference hosted by Goldman Sachs. “They want to have a Thanksgiving, and if this situation with the virus enables it — or maybe even if it doesn’t — we’re going to see strong demand through the rest of the year.”

Here’s an early look at what shoppers and retailers may see this holiday season, based on CNBC’s interviews with retail analysts and comments from industry executives:

The pressures threaten to spoil the holiday season for families that don’t shop soon enough. Many phases of the manufacturing and delivery processes are taking longer than normal. Consumers can expect packages to take more time to get to their doorsteps, as delivery carriers including UPS and FedEx work through their own bottlenecks.

Businesses, meantime, are trying to ensure there is enough merchandise on hand to meet the predicted heightened holiday demand. Most categories of goods, from consumer electronics to toys to sneakers, are being impacted in some way.

Gap chief financial officer Katrina O’Connell said Thursday at the Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference that the apparel company expects the supply chain issues to persist deep into…