If looking for a hotel deal, it might pay to wait until the last

On Sep 26, 2021

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When it comes to reserving hotel stays, Aesop and his fabled ants might have gotten it backwards — it can actually pay to wait till the last minute to book.

While conventional wisdom holds that travelers get better rates for accommodations, air and other vacation components by reserving early, research from NerdWallet found that 66% of the time they’d save more by waiting to book a hotel room until 15 days before arrival, compared to four months out.

The idea that booking early is better has actually always been more about choice, said Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet.

“It’s less about ‘buy earlier for better deals’ and more about the opportunity cost of not booking early — you could severely limit your options by waiting,” she said. “Booking in advance means you have more choice to book the hotel that’s truly in your budget.”

NerdWallet studied more than 2,500 hotel room rates in 2019, 2020 and the first half of 2021 at hotels worldwide across price point and brand, comparing prices for nights 15 days and four months out.

From 2019 to 2021, the average room rate in North America booked 15 days out was $203, while that for a unit booked four months out was $233, NerdWallet found, a 12.7% difference. Internationally, the respective rates and difference were a similar $201 and $232, a 13.5% gap.

“International trends are mostly in line with domestic trends,” said French, adding it’s “comforting knowing you’re not missing out on even better international deals.”

The average rate at all high-end hotels, meanwhile, was $302 when booked 15 days before travel, compared to $386 four months ahead — a 21.6% difference. The difference is even greater — 50%, NerdWallet found — when comparing rates for 15 days ahead with 11 months before.

However, “cheaper” is a relative term, French noted. As an example, she pointed to pre-pandemic nightly rates at the JW Marriott Los Angeles L.A. LIVE, which were $1,110 when booked 11 months out and $450 just 15 days before.

“Still, $450 is more than most people are going to pay for one night at a hotel,” French said. “So while you might get a ‘better’ rate at that hotel, it’s often going to still be more expensive than a mid-range option.”

Savings at medium- and low-range hotels were more meager, at 9.4% and 5.5%, respectively. French said NerdWallet found that “budget friendly” hotels, such as the $100-a-night Best Western Market Center in Dallas — which never deviated from that rate in the course of the study — are less likely to vary in price even up to the last minute.

“But what happens if you think it’s OK to procrastinate, and then all the budget hotels get sold out because a huge festival or conference was in town?” French said. “You might have no choice but to book the…