Are Criminal Investigations Closing In on Donald Trump?

President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas, Texas on July 11, 2021. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

When it comes to the ongoing criminal investigations of Donald Trump in New York and Georgia, an understandably impatient public just wants the bottom line. Are the walls finally closing in on him, or are these probes just fizzling out? Put more prosaically: Does Donald Trump have a perp walk and a prison cell in his future?

Since Trump’s presidency began, each revelation of his corruption led many of us to say things like “the walls are closing in.” Such proclamations were hopeful but also based on hardheaded observation. We had seen so much rot from Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election through both impeachment trials in the Senate. Surely something would stick. But these statements were palliatives, not prophecies. When it comes to Trump, we pundits are no better at foreseeing the future than is a Magic 8 Ball replying, “SIGNS POINT TO YES” in response to a whispering child’s repeated entreaties.

Instead of guessing, then, let’s look and come to reasonable conclusions about the known criminal investigations at the state and local levels as well as the potential ones that the U.S. Department of Justice could be or should be pursuing.

There’s the criminal matter that Cy Vance Jr., the outgoing Manhattan district attorney, is pursuing. Recall that in late June, after an investigation of more than two years, the grand jury that Vance convened indicted the Trump Corporation and one of its affiliates for an alleged tax fraud scheme that began in 2005. It involved off-the-books payments to executives that deprived city, state, and federal tax authorities of more than $1 million.

The alleged bagman and the big beneficiary was chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg, who was charged with criminal tax fraud, grand larceny, falsifying business records, and scheming to defraud the government. Though he is not a certified public accountant, Weisselberg was Donald and his father Fred’s longtime right-hand numbers man, connected with the notorious family businesses for half a century. Dare I say that he is the human equivalent of the strip mall accounting firm for the late swindler Bernie Madoff? Madoff’s auditor from that firm, David Friehling, pleaded guilty in 2009, but he cooperated with the feds, avoiding prison.

Will Weisselberg sing like Friehling? Maybe not, but others might, including the unindicted coconspirator named in the indictment or others who Weisselberg’s attorney Bryan Skarlatos said would soon be charged in this case. Any of them should consider telling the truth in exchange for some level of immunity. And there may be solid evidence from those not thought to be caught up in the crime, such as Trump’s long-term personal assistant, Rhona Graff, who could reveal her boss’s thinking.

Given that Trump was…