Stock Market Survives Scary Week. Can It Survive Earnings Season?

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The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survive earnings season?

The week began with everything falling apart—energy prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. appeared on the verge of default. It ended with lower oil prices, thanks to Vladimir Putin, of all people, and the debt-ceiling being pushed off to December. It even brushed off what looked to be a surprisingly weak jobs report to—wait for it—finish higher.

The

Dow Jones Industrial Average
gained 1.2% this past week, while the

S&P 500
rose 0.8%, and the

Nasdaq Composite
squeaked out a 0.1% advance. For the Dow, it was just the second rise in the past six weeks.

But let’s admit something right here, right now. None of this is normal—not the politics, and certainly not the economic data. September’s jobs report was a disaster—but not because of the disappointing headline number. Yes, the U.S. added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 500,000, and that’s the kind of miss that would suggest a slowing economy. The number, though, was close to meaningless, given the seasonal adjustments—which may have skewed it lower—and by comparison to the household survey, which showed more than 500,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Try making an investment decision off that.

“Investors should be careful to temper their reactions to the non-farm payroll report, which is quite volatile and typically undergoes material revisions in the months following the initial release,” writes Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.

Still, the market tried to make the best of it. While bonds initially saw a bit of buying, pushing yields down, the 10-year Treasury closed the week with a yield of 1.6%, its highest since June, defying what appeared to be bad news. The Dow finished Friday down 0.03%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.

That the stock market would do virtually nothing makes sense given the complexity of the employment picture. Job openings remain high, but the number of people leaving the workforce only seems to increase. Even rising pay—average hourly wages rose 4.6%—hasn’t been able to bring workers back. And that means that the labor market, despite an unemployment rate well above prepandemic levels of 3.5%, might actually be much tighter than it looks.

The reality of rising costs,…