Bleak midterm outlook shadows bitter Democratic battle

The 2022 midterm elections — and the very real possibility that Democrats could be swept from their House majority — is hanging over the bitter political fight within the party over President BidenJoe BidenMajority of Americans concerned about cyberattacks on critical groups: poll Labor secretary says 194K jobs added in September was ‘not the best number’ Biden task force has reunited 52 families separated under Trump: report MORE’s domestic agenda.

The centrist House Democrats representing swing districts who see their seats as providing Democrats with their majority say progressives are being short-sighted and selfish by holding up a vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill they could tout as a major victory back home.

If Democrats do lose the House, these lawmakers suggest it will be the fault of liberal colleagues in diamond blue districts who have little to fear themselves in next year’s midterms.

“It’s very risky to have to go back to your district and tell people that you voted ‘no’ on $1.2 trillion of infrastructure funding,” Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), a Blue Dog, said recently.   

Progressives take a completely different view.

They see themselves as fighting for the Biden agenda, and argue the party’s liberal base will have no reason to come out and support liberal and centrist Democrats alike unless lawmakers can enact real change at a time when they hold the White House and both chambers of Congress.

They are demanding a vote on Biden’s social spending package before a vote on an infrastructure bill that has also won GOP support, and they say doing so is the best way to win next November too.

History sides against both camps, and suggests Democrats are likely to lose the House no matter what they do legislatively. The midterm election in a new president’s first term is typically disastrous for their party. Just ask former Presidents Barack ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaAs Washington becomes even more partisan, all factions take ‘hostages’ Overnight Energy & Environment — Biden makes return to pre-Trump national monument boundaries official Biden officially restores national monuments rolled back by Trump MORE and Donald TrumpDonald TrumpFormer Trump cybersecurity official says GOP leaders have ‘lost control’ of voter base: ‘This is a death spiral’ Pence treads carefully with Trump Grisham thinks Trump will run in 2024 and have no ‘guardrails’ MORE.

In 2010, after months of hard debate, Democrats pushed through a health care reform package that would stand as Obama’s domestic legacy — only to lose 63 seats, and control of the House, a few months later. 

In late 2017, the first year of the Trump administration, Republicans scored a similarly enormous victory when they adopted a massive package of tax cuts. The following November, however, voters went to the polls and delivered control of the House to the Democrats. 

In both cases, the president’s approval rating was underwater. And with Biden’s numbers…