Smarkets betting site makes Trump favorite in 2024

The Smarkets betting site has named former President Trump as the most likely candidate to win the White House in 2024. 

The site predicted that Trump has a 20 percent chance of winning the next presidential election, edging out President Biden, who came in at 19 percent. Trump’s odds of winning in 2024 are up significantly from the days after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, when he fell to just 3 percent. 

“It’s a pretty staggering development to find a defeated one-term president taking over as favourite from the incumbent who beat him, but we know by now that Donald Trump is no ordinary politician,” Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets’ head of political markets, said in a statement.

Shaddick also notes that the research indicates that any health or legal obstacles Trump may have been expected to face won’t be an issue.

“Many forecasters had predicted that health or legal issues might stop Trump from re-election, but the latest Smarkets prices imply that there is a two-in-three chance he’ll run for the White House again in three years’ time,” Shaddick said.

Vice President Harris came in as the third most likely candidate to win the White House, at 13 percent, a decrease from when she was in the lead in March at 21 percent.

Smarkets’ analysis also has Trump in a very comfortable lead to be the GOP presidential nominee, with a 45 percent chance of winning the Republican primary. The next most likely candidates, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, are at 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

Smarkets’ prediction follows a Pew Research Center survey last week that found that almost half of Republicans want Trump to run for the presidency in 2024.