Fossil fuel use dangerously out of sync with global targets

LONDON — As world leaders prepare for one of the most important climate summits ever held, U.N.-backed research shows governments are collectively planning to extract far more fossil fuels than would be consistent with global climate targets.

The United Nations Environment Programme’s annual production gap report, published on Wednesday, found governments were on track to produce more than twice the levels of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be needed to keep rising global temperatures to below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Ahead of the COP26 climate summit in just over a week, politicians and business leaders are under immense pressure to meet the demands of the climate emergency by delivering on promises made as part of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement.

The Paris climate accord aims to limit global heating to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably to limit warming to the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

While every fraction of a degree matters, the aspirational goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius is regarded as particularly important because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely.

The UNEP’s report finds most major oil and gas producers are planning on increasing production out to 2030 and beyond, while several major coal producers are also planning on continuing or increasing production.

By the end of the decade, government’s production plans and projections were forecast to lead to around 240% more coal, 57% more oil and 71% more gas than would be consistent with limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The findings reaffirm the yawning gap between meaningful climate action and the rhetoric of policymakers and business leaders publicly touting their commitment to the so-called “energy transition.”

The world’s leading climate scientists warned in early August that limiting global heating to close to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even 2 degrees Celsius would be beyond reach in the next two decades without immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The UNEP underscored this point once again, noting global fossil fuel production remains “dangerously out of sync” with Paris Agreement limits. It said worldwide fossil fuel use must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The report analyzed 15 major fossil fuel producers: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia,…