Trump broke the suburbs for the GOP. The rebuilding could start in

Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s campaign has made Trump a centerpiece of the governor’s race, tying Youngkin to the former president in nearly 60 percent of his TV ads airing in the closing weeks of the race, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm. But it’s unclear whether Trump inspires the same urgency among voters now that he’s out of office. Meanwhile, Youngkin is hammering his message even more single-mindedly at the end of the race: AdImpact’s data shows that every single one of Youngkin’s closing TV ads has centered on education and schools, a top issue for suburban voters.

“Virginia will tell us whether past frustration with Trump still lingers in the suburbs,” said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster who focuses on suburban voters. “You’ve got McAuliffe talking about ‘Trump, Trump, Trump,’ and Youngkin focused on suburban issues, like education, cost of living and jobs. That’s the tug of war for the suburbs.”

Should Republicans regain ground in the Virginia suburbs in two weeks, it could not only help flip the state red — it would inevitably set off alarm bells for Democrats preparing for next year’s midterm elections. Virginia Democrats’ strong showing in the suburbs in the last governor’s race foreshadowed Democratic gains around most every major metro area in 2018 and 2020, helping flip the House and Senate. Republican recovery in the suburbs this year could presage Congress swinging the other direction in 2022.

“If Democrats are bleeding in the suburbs now, no way you’re not bleeding the suburbs next year,” said Dan Sena, former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Mary Margaret Kastelberg, a Republican businessperson running for a state House of Delegates seat based in Henrico County, outside of Richmond, said she’s witnessed a suburban attitude shift firsthand.

When she knocked on doors and talked to voters in her 2019 campaign, “I definitely heard about Trump,” she said. She lost to Democratic state Del. Rodney Willett by 1,300 votes amid a “constant drumbeat” about Trump in the media, Kastelberg continued.

Now, Kastelberg said, “I’m not hearing about him at the doors” as she runs in a rematch against Willett. “Trump has fallen down on the list of what matters to them,” she added. “This go-round, people are moving away from labels, and they actually want to know where I am on education, the top issue right now.”

Kastelberg is one of several Republican women running in suburban districts, part of an intentional effort by Virginia Republicans to recruit candidates who might appeal to voters there — especially the college-educated women who turned hard against the GOP in the Trump era. The Republican State Leadership Committee, the national group responsible for electing Republicans in state legislative races, said that 56 percent of the RSLC’s direct candidate contributions in Virginia went to female candidates.

Youngkin,…