Two special-election results suggest GOP staunched the bloodletting

State legislative special elections provide an interesting index of partisan sentiment. That wasn’t so in the late 20th century, when clever local candidates and notables often got voters to cross party lines. But in this century of increasing partisan polarization and straight-ticket voting, local special elections are a proxy for opinion on national issues.

In that light, consider the results of the two special legislative elections that have resulted in a change of parties so far this year.

The first was in Connecticut’s 36th state Senate district on Aug. 17. This is the richest state Senate district in Connecticut and may be the richest in all of America. It includes the super-rich town of Greenwich, where Prescott Bush, father and grandfather of presidents, served as moderator of the Representative Town Meeting for 17 years, plus nearly as rich New Canaan and the northern half of Stamford.

The 36th district is ancestral Republican country that trended Democratic during Donald Trump’s presidency. Republican Scott Frantz won it by 59 percent to 39 percent in 2016, then lost 50 percent to 49 percent to Democrat Alex Kasser in 2018, who held it 51 percent to 49 percent over Republican Ryan Fazio in 2020. Not atypical results for a seat packed with affluent college graduates.

But in 2021, Kasser resigned, and Fazio regained the seat by a bare 50 percent to 48 percent margin. Republicans hailed this as a big victory, but it was more a sign that, after eight months of President Joe Biden, high-income disgust with Trump had crested.

The other party flip happened this month in the demographically dissimilar Iowa 29th state House district, which includes most of Jasper County and industrial Newton, the former longtime home of Maytag. It’s an area with many blue-collar workers and union members and was long a safe Democratic district. Democrat Wesley Breckenridge won it twice by double digits — 51 percent to 38 percent in 2016 and 59 percent to 41 percent in 2018 — but by only 52 percent to 48 percent in 2020. After he resigned in 2021, Republican Jon Dunwell won on Oct. 12 by a 60 percent to 40 percent margin.

Trump lost in 2020 because he fell behind his 2016 showing among upscale voters and did not make sufficiently compensating gains among downscale white and minority voters. The Greenwich and Newton legislative results suggest Republicans have staunched the bloodletting among the affluent and have regained momentum with downscale voters.

This is in line with CNN analyst Harry Enten’s observation that, since April 2021, Republicans have been running well-ahead of their November 2020 levels. It’s consistent with the widespread sense that Democrats are likely to lose — and may lose by a lot — the narrow 222 to 213 House majority…