What’s at stake at COP26? A guide to the make-or-break climate issues
LONDON — World leaders are under huge pressure to outline how they plan to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change at one of the most important diplomatic summits in history.
The major climate event, known as COP26, will take place in Glasgow, Scotland from Sunday through to Nov. 12. It was initially scheduled to be held last year but was delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Diplomats and world leaders have sought to downplay expectations of success in the run-up to the summit, although a position paper of more than 100 developing countries representing more than half of the world has insisted there can be “no more excuses for unfulfilled promises.”
To have any chance of capping global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the aspirational goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world needs to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions in the next 8 years and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Climate scientists have repeatedly stressed that the best weapon to tackle rising global temperatures is to cut greenhouse gas emissions — fast.
Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the world’s most influential Earth scientists, told CNBC that he believes the success of COP26 will come down to negotiations on five make-or-break issues.
These are mitigation, climate finance, carbon pricing, nature solutions and the phasing out of fossil fuels.
Mitigation
“We must, at a minimum, have 195 countries aligning with science in their plans — not even delivering, but just in their plans — and that requires net zero targets by 2050 at the latest,” Rockstrom said.
“We only have a small number of countries that have done that so far,” he added, noting that countries such as Indonesia, Russia and Brazil were all yet to publicly declare net-zero targets by the middle of the century.
A U.N. report published earlier this week found new and updated Nationally Determined Contributions put the world on track for a dangerous global temperature rise of at least 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century — even if plans were fully met.
NDCs are the efforts of each country to reduce national emissions. At present, the U.N. says updated NDCs would only lead to an additional 7.5% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions compared to previous commitments.
Climate activists “set fire” to George Square, Glasgow, with an art installation of faux flames, smoke, and banners, and giant fire extinguishers, creating a field of climate fire to welcome world leaders to Glasgow for the Cop26 conference.
Andrew Milligan | PA Images | Getty Images
Farhana Yamin, a climate lawyer and advisor to the Climate Vulnerable Forum, told CNBC via telephone that COP26 must trigger a profound “justice reset” if it is to be considered a successful summit. “Success can only come from grasping hard truths, speaking honestly and recognizing the situation of vulnerable countries.”
It is not good enough, she added, for those at COP26…
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