Buying the Retreat in Crude Oil at the 200 SMA

Crude Oil has been bullish for about a year and a half now, after surviving the grave it fell in during March and April last year, when US crude fell to $-37.50. Since then, crude Oil has been on a one-way traffic road higher, taking the price to $85.40 last month, with a resistance zone around $85.

During this period, the bullish momentum has been consistent. There have been pullbacks, but smaller moving averages such as the 20 SMA (gray) and the 50 SMA (yellow) have acted as support and have kept the uptrend going for such a long time, and at times the 100 SMA (green) has helped when the pullback has been deeper.

WTI

This time, the price has retreated even more and last week we saw US WTI crude Oil fall below $78, although the 200 SMA (purple) held as support. Now, the price is back at this moving average so we decided to open a buy signal in crude Oil, especially after US inflation report poster further gains yesterday.

Besides that, Iraq’s oil minister said earlier today that OPEC+ expected to keep output policy unchanged in December meeting. That fits with market expectations for the most part. I don’t think OPEC+ is rushing to make any changes to its output policy and they will have another look at things next year as they reassess the global outlook. S0 we went long above $80, right at the 200 SMA.