Drones and F-35 fighter jet deal in focus for the Dubai Air Show
A pair of MQ-9 Reapers from the 46th Expeditionary Attack Squadron are parked on the flightline at Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait, June 9, 2020.
Senior Airman Isaiah J. Soliz | U.S. Air Force
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Cutting-edge technologies and geopolitics are set to feature in military deals at this year’s Dubai Air Show. And some weapons sales — or lack thereof — are major sticking points for both the U.S. and its Gulf allies, in particular the United Arab Emirates.
Fighter jet fleet upgrades and new counter-UAS (unmanned aerial systems) technologies are likely to be major themes at the industry show, especially considering the rise in drone attacks around the region in recent years.
But many eyes will be on whether prior agreements made under the Trump administration to sell certain U.S. weapons systems to the UAE will actually come through — agreements that have been stalled since the Biden administration came into power.
The sales in question are of the coveted Lockheed Martin F-35 II joint strike fighter jet and the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper drone, which, if completed, would mark the first sale of the F-35 and U.S.-made armed drones to any Arab country.
“For quite a while, the UAE has had an outstanding fighter aircraft requirement moving towards an F-35 purchase but, you know, terribly fraught with complications,” Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group, told CNBC ahead of the air show.
The deal signed on Jan. 20, Donald Trump’s last day in office, was for a whopping $23 billion sale to the UAE, the majority of which was made up of 50 F-35 jets and at least 18 armed drones.
Previously, U.S. export regulations prevented Washington from selling lethal drones to any of its Arab allies. And an F-35 sale to the Gulf desert sheikhdom was initially a non-starter due to a legal obligation for the U.S. to reserve its most advanced weapons sales for Israel, in order to uphold Israel’s “qualitative military edge” in the Middle East.
But all that changed after Israel and the UAE signed the Abraham Accords in August of 2020, normalizing relations and paving the way for cooperation and trade across nearly all sectors. And the export restrictions on armed drones were loosened by the Trump administration in July of 2020 to allow certain drones — including the lethal Reapers — to be sold to friendly Arab states.
Losing technological space to China?
What spurred that change? Geopolitics and competition, defense experts say.
Washington was “trying to kind of come into the pragmatic reality of what the current global environment is for unmanned systems,” said Charles Forrester, senior defense industry analyst at IHS Jane’s.
He highlighted a point that many American industry leaders have warned about: losing market share to China, which has been selling its own armed drones to Arab states, including the UAE.
“The Trump administration was … realizing that if they didn’t adjust their policies, they would lose power,…
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