Holiday travel may rebound but overspending, uncertainty can spoil

The travel industry might get a much-wished-for gift this holiday season, if the latest predictions about year-end travel turn out to be true. Pandemic-weary Americans seem to be ready to take trips for Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s and other winter celebrations, several studies have found.

AAA is predicting that this Thanksgiving will see travel volume rise to within 5% of 2019 levels, with some 53.4 million people taking to the air, roads and rails. That’s a jump of 13% from last year; the rebound in air travel alone will be even greater, up 80% over 2020.

Thanksgiving travelers will be sharing planes, trains and highway lanes with about 6.4 million more people this year, and should brace for crowds, according to Paula Twidale, senior vice president at AAA Travel.

“This Thanksgiving, travel will look a lot different than last year,” she said, in a statement. “Now that the borders are open and new health and safety guidelines are in place, travel is once again high on the list for Americans who are ready to reunite with their loved ones for the holiday.”

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Mike Daher of audit, consulting, tax and advisory firm Deloitte agreed.

“This holiday season, sweaters are nice but what people really want is a warm embrace from family or loved ones,” said Daher, vice chair, U.S. transportation, hospitality and services leader of non-attest services at Deloitte. “So they’re going to take to the skies and the roads to make that happen.”

In its November Holiday Travel Survey of 6,512 Americans, Deloitte found that 4 in 10 respondents will travel for the holidays, and 1 in 3 will take a flight or stay at paid lodging.

“And we think they’re going to spend roughly about the same as they did in 2019 — pre-pandemic times,” Daher said.

Being able to travel when and where we like — time and treasure permitting — is a hallmark of normalcy, so getting back on the road for holiday trips can feel like the good old days.

Andrew Custage, head of analytics for Sense360 by Medallia, said the consumer research firm found 34% of consumers questioned Oct. 8 to Oct. 11 for its Holiday Plans Survey said the holidays will feel “more normal” than 2020, if not completely, and 15% think the season will feel just like it did before the pandemic.

The firm found people in the Northeast, at 35%, and West (31%) are most likely to travel, compared to Southerners (28%) and Midwesterners (27%). According to Custage, the discrepancy may be due to the facts that both the Northeast and West are not only stricter, in general, about Covid regulations but are also home to more transplants who’ll likely travel back to other regions for the holidays.

Travel-organizing app TripIt from Concur’s data, meanwhile, shows that 53% of the service’s users plan to travel in the…