Trump leads Biden in a possible 2024 presidential matchup

On Nov 14, 2021

In a hypothetical 2024 rematch, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Iowa by 11 percentage points, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

In 2020, Trump defeated Biden by about 8 percentage points, carrying the state 53% to 45%.

In the new survey, 51% of likely Iowa voters in the 2024 election would vote for Trump, a Republican, while 40% say they would vote for Biden, a Democrat. Another 4% say they would not vote for either candidate, and 5% are not sure.

The poll comes as Biden’s approval rating among Iowans sits near its lowest ebb since he took office in January. Meanwhile, Iowans view Trump more favorably than they did while he was in office, according to a September Iowa Poll.

Trump’s 2024 lead among likely Iowa voters appears to be driven by support among independents.

Biden wins support among 95% of Democrats — slightly better than the 91% Trump earns among Republicans. But independents favor Trump by 8 percentage points, 45% to 37%.

“Trump won Iowa convincingly in 2020, and that’s reflected in these data,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.

Selzer & Co. conducted the poll of 810 Iowa adults, including 658 likely voters, Nov. 7 to 10. The questions of all Iowans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and questions asked of likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

But Selzer cautioned that the poll shows an opening for Republican caucus challengers.

“If all you had in this poll was that Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 11 points, it might say everything is locked up,” she said.

But the poll found that among Iowans who identify as Republicans, 61% say they are more aligned with the party compared to 26% who say they are more aligned with Trump. The margin of error for that question is plus or minus 6 percentage points.