Trump Investigation Enters Crucial Phase as Prosecutor’s Term Nears

A long-running criminal investigation into Donald J. Trump and his family business is reaching a critical phase as Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the prosecutor overseeing the inquiry, enters his final weeks as Manhattan district attorney.

Mr. Vance’s prosecutors have issued new subpoenas for records about Mr. Trump’s hotels, golf clubs and office buildings. They recently interviewed a banker employed by Deutsche Bank, Mr. Trump’s top lender. And earlier this month, they told a top Trump executive who had been under scrutiny, Matthew Calamari, that they did not currently plan to indict him in the purported tax-evasion scheme that led to charges against Mr. Trump’s company and its chief financial officer.

The developments, described by people with knowledge of the matter, show that the Manhattan prosecutors have shifted away from investigating those tax issues and returned to an original focus of their three-year investigation: Mr. Trump’s statements about the value of his assets.

In particular, the people said, the prosecutors are zeroing in on whether Mr. Trump or his company inflated the value of some of his properties while trying to secure financing from potential lenders. If Mr. Vance’s office concludes that Mr. Trump intentionally submitted false values to potential lenders, prosecutors could argue that he engaged in a pattern of fraud.

Mr. Trump and his company have denied wrongdoing, calling the inquiry a politically motivated witch hunt by Mr. Vance, a Democrat. His prosecutors are working with the office of the New York State attorney general, Letitia James, also a Democrat, who is running for governor and has been a vocal critic of Mr. Trump.

The investigation is playing out as Mr. Trump continues to wield enormous influence over the Republican Party and flirts with another presidential run in 2024. It has yet to hamper his political standing and could even energize his base, though the inquiry could also serve as a costly distraction.

It is unclear whether any new charges will be brought, but if they are, it could be difficult to prove that Mr. Trump or his company defrauded their lenders. One challenge is that the lenders are sophisticated financial institutions that most likely conducted their own assessments of Mr. Trump’s property values without relying entirely on him.

Still, Mr. Vance’s prosecutors have issued a flurry of subpoenas in recent months.

At least one subpoena issued this summer to Mr. Trump’s company, the Trump Organization, demanded information about how the company valued various assets, according to the people, who all spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter.

The company is resisting turning over some documents, a matter that is the subject of sealed litigation in Manhattan.

The Deutsche Bank employee, a banker in the division that works with Mr. Trump, also recently met with prosecutors in Mr. Vance’s office to answer their questions, the people said.

The…