Weeks ahead will test retailers’ lofty expectations

Is it beginning to look a lot like Christmas? Perhaps not, this year.

With 24 days until the big holiday, retailers hope consumers will keep spending. Shoppers started purchasing holiday gifts early this year, but the Thanksgiving weekend shopping events, from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, weren’t as strong as some had hoped.

Although analysts expect retail sales will hit lofty expectations, there is a lack of holiday buzz, according to Deborah Weinswig, founder and CEO of Coresight Research.

“Typically, people are like ‘How’s your holiday shopping going? What are you getting so-and-so?,'” she said. “I feel like some of that we don’t have this year — and I’m not sure why it is.” 

She said that could be due to consumers feeling distracted by the return of family gatherings and bigger parties, disenchanted by inflated prices or more measured about their shopping approach as they work ahead to avoid out-of-stocks and shipping delays.

And while she anticipates that retailers will put up a solid performance, she said it will be interesting to see how much of that comes from inflation and more merchandise that is bought at full price rather than an increase in volume sold.

Retailers including Amazon, Walmart and Target blasted holiday deals and Black Friday-style promotions as early as October. Consumers had other motivators this holiday season to buy gifts early, too. Instead of chasing deep discounts or nabbing the hot, must-have gift, many had fears of not finding anything worth buying because of supply chain woes. For months, shoppers heard about temporarily shuttered factories, congested ports and a shortage of truck drivers.

That wave of early shopping may have stolen some of the thunder from major shopping holidays, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The total number of shoppers and average spending dropped during Thanksgiving weekend, which spans from Thursday to Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation. Nearly 180 million Americans shopped during the five-day holiday weekend compared with about 186 million shoppers in 2020 and about 190 million in 2019, the trade group said.

Average spending fell, too, with Thanksgiving weekend shoppers forking over an average of $301.27 on holiday-related purchases versus $311.75 in 2020 and $361.90 in 2019, NRF said.

Consumers spent $10.7 billion on Cyber Monday, marking a 1.4% decrease from year-ago levels, according to data released Tuesday by Adobe Analytics. That is the first time that Adobe has tracked a slowdown in spending on major shopping days since it started reporting on e-commerce transactions in 2012. However, it comes after last holiday season when spending on the shopping holiday grew by 15.1% versus 2019.

The price point of shopping carts rose by nearly 14% on Cyber Monday — and 19% for the…