Social Studies: Viral stories; pressure on coaches; Groundhog Day for
Viral origin story
In several experiments conducted before the pandemic, Americans expressed more worry about a virus originating from Africa than about a similar virus originating from Asia, Europe, or Latin America, even when researchers controlled for the participants’ race, political orientation, and perception of the origin country’s ability to contain the virus. In turn, greater worry led to greater support for travel bans. A follow-up experiment during the current pandemic (but long before the Omicron variant emerged) found that Americans expressed more worry and support for a travel ban for an African (compared with a European) country with low positivity and death rates, again controlling for participants’ race, political orientation, and perception of the country’s ability to contain the virus.
Trawalter, S. et al., “Racial Bias in Perceptions of Disease and Policy,” Group Processes & Intergroup Relations (forthcoming).
Coaches on the hot seat
Business-school professors found that NFL coaches were more likely to be fired after the advent of player free agency and salary caps, even controlling for age and experience, player talent, and wins in the most recent season. The explanation for this pattern is that coaching became a more critical factor after free agency and salary caps distributed talent more evenly across the league.
Allen, D. et al., “Firms’ Responses to Changes in Frictions in Related Human Capital Factor Markets,” Strategic Management Journal (forthcoming).
Inside-burrow trading
Analyzing stock-market data and all Groundhog Day prognostications by the various Punxsutawney Phils since 1928, researchers found that the stock market “substantially appreciated subsequent to Phil’s ‘prediction’ of an early spring, while the returns were moderately negative after he ‘predicted’ a long winter.” This anomaly was not seen in the stock markets of the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, France, and Japan. The researchers also noted that traders often appeared to anticipate this effect in the two weeks prior to Groundhog Day, “exploiting their awareness of the superstition and weather forecasts.”
Shanaev, S. et al., “The Groundhog Day Stock Market Anomaly,” Finance Research Letters (forthcoming).
Fusion energy
Analysis of online comments on Gab (a social network popular with the far right) and on the subreddit Incels (known for misogyny) revealed that users who expressed morals that were aligned more closely with their conversation group were more likely to post hate speech than other commenters were. This association was confirmed in experiments. Participants who were asked to imagine joining a Facebook group that shared their morals — or who were told that most Americans shared their morals — subsequently expressed more support for radical actions such as breaking the law and resorting to violence. This effect appeared to be explained…
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