What investors should know ahead of Q4 results
A 2022 Ford Motor Co. Maverick compact pickup truck during the Washington Auto Show in Washington, D.C., on Friday, Jan. 21, 2022.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images
DETROIT – Shares of Ford Motor led the automotive sector in growth last year, soaring by about 140% thanks to a restructuring plan led by CEO Jim Farley. But the stock has stalled so far this year, down by less than 1%.
Investors will decide Thursday whether Ford can get any of that momentum back when the Detroit automaker reports its fourth-quarter results and gives guidance for this year after the markets close.
Wall Street analysts estimate Ford will post a profit of 45 cents a share in adjusted earnings and a 6% rise in revenue from the previous year to $35.5 billion, according to Refinitiv estimates.
While investors will be monitoring Ford’s quarterly results, they’re more interested in the automaker’s guidance for this year as well as any progress or setbacks in Farley’s Ford+ turnaround plan.
Here’s more on those issues and other things investors should know about ahead of Ford’s fourth-quarter results after the markets close Thursday.
Outlook
Much of Wall Street’s focus for Ford, like other automakers, will be on the company’s guidance for 2022.
Automakers continue to manage through a global shortage of semiconductor chips, which some experts don’t expect to return to normal levels until late this year, if not 2023. Ford and other automakers were forced to sporadically shutter plants and depleted vehicle inventories due to the lack of chips.
Ford’s crosstown rival General Motors surprised Wall Street by saying it expects its global production to increase by 25% to 30% in 2022 over last year. In October, Ford said it expected an increase in wholesale volumes, which are closely correlated with production, of just 10% in 2022.
Ford has started initial pre-production of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck at a new plant in Dearborn, Mich.
Michael Wayland | CNBC
GM reported full-year adjusted earnings of $14.3 billion, or $7.07 earnings per share, on revenue of $127 billion in 2021.
Analysts estimate Ford this year will earn between $1.54 and $2.35 earnings per share on revenue of $147.5 billion, according to Refinitiv. That compares with expectations of between $1.72 and $2.05 EPS and revenue of $126.3 billion in 2021.
Rivian
Ford announced several special items and financing adjustments last month for the fourth quarter that could skew earnings if analysts didn’t adjust their forecasts.
The most notable item was a fourth-quarter gain of $8.2 billion on Ford’s equity investment when EV start-up Rivian went public.
The company also reclassified a $900 million profit on its equity investment in Rivian to a special item that will impact the company’s full-year adjusted earnings guidance. It was previously between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion. Excluding that gain, the company’s 2021 guidance would be between $9.6 billion and $10.6 billion.
Ford owns about 12% of Rivian. It also…