Poland, neighbors ready for influx of migrants

As the crisis in Ukraine unfolds, neighboring countries are closely monitoring the fallout.

Nations across the globe have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Moscow, but the economic and military repercussions of Russia’s Ukrainian invasion is just part of the picture.

The European continent is concerned that a full-blown incursion could lead to a major migrant crisis — the type not seen since World War II — with serious humanitarian, political and societal costs both for Ukrainian refugees and the countries to which they flee.

Indeed, some central European nations are already making preparations.

Poland, which shares an approximately 530-kilometer land border with Ukraine, said last month that it is preparing for up to 1 million Ukrainian refugees, whom they plan to house in hostels, dormitories and sports facilities. Nearby Romania is anticipating migration in the “hundreds of thousands,” while Slovakia and the Czech Republic put estimated inflows in the tens of thousands.

The nature of the evolving situation in Ukraine, however, means the scale of potential civilian displacement is as yet unknown.

“As far as Europe’s concerned, it’s potentially one of the biggest impacts of this crisis,” Oksana Antonenko, director of global risk analysis at Control Risks, told CNBC Tuesday.

Ukraine, home to roughly 44 million, saw internal displacement of around 1.5 million people following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Others still moved to Russia.

Russia’s operation earlier this week to capture the rebel-held Donetsk and Luhansk regions was seen as likely to provoke similar internal and eastward migration, though on differing scales. Indeed, many have already been transported to Russia.

But Thursday’s further incursion into central and western Ukraine could have far wider implications, experts have warned.

The U.S. government estimates that an invasion of Ukraine could prompt one to five million Ukrainians to flee the battleground. Ukraine’s defense minister has put that figure closer to three to five million.

“If that is to happen, we’re certainly talking about hundreds of thousands if not millions of refugees, and they will most likely be fleeing into Europe rather than Russia,” Antonenko said.

“If you ended up with a Russian occupied Ukraine, then those would be longer term European refugees,” added Rodger Baker, Stratfor’s senior vice president for strategic analysis at Rane.