S&P cuts Russia’s rating to junk, Moody’s issues junk warning

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a flurry of credit rating moves on Friday, with S&P lowering Russia’s rating to ‘junk’ status, Moody’s putting it on review for a downgrade to junk, and S&P and Fitch swiftly cutting Ukraine on default worries.

Both countries’ financial markets have unsurprisingly been thrown into turmoil by this week’s events, which rank as the biggest military attack in Europe since World War Two, bringing stiff Western sanctions on Moscow.

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S&P lowered Russia’s long-term foreign currency credit rating to ‘BB+’ from ‘BBB-‘, and warned it could lower ratings further, after getting more clarity on the macroeconomic repercussions of the sanctions.

“In our view, the sanctions announced to date could carry significant negative implications for the Russian banking sector’s ability to act as a financial intermediary for international trade, S&P said.

FILE PHOTO: Signage is seen outside the Moody’s Corporation headquarters in Manhattan, New York. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly (REUTERS/Andrew Kelly / Reuters Photos)

It also cut Ukraine’s rating to ‘B-‘ from ‘B’.

Russia now has an “investment grade” rating of Baa3 from Moody’s and an equivalent BBB- from Fitch, due to one of the lowest debt levels in the world at just 20% of GDP, and nearly $650 billion of currency reserves.

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A downgrade, however, would lower that rating to the riskier “junk” or sub-investment grade category.

“The decision to place the ratings on review for downgrade reflects the negative credit implications for Russia’s credit profile from the additional and more severe sanctions being imposed,” Moody’s said in a statement.

Sovereign rating reviews can take months but this time are likely to be quicker.

WASHINGTON, DC – FEBRUARY 22: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on developments in Ukraine and Russia, and announces sanctions against Russia, from the East Room of the White House February 22, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Drew Angerer/G (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Moody’s said its decision would factor in the scale of the conflict and the severity of additional Western sanctions, which have already hit some of Russia’s top banks, military exports and members of President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. 

It added it would also weigh the degree to which Russia’s substantial currency reserves are able to mitigate the disruption stemming from the new sanctions and lengthy conflict.

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“Moody’s will look to conclude the review when these credit implications become more clear, particularly when the impact of further sanctions takes shape in the coming days or weeks,” it said.

Moody’s also put Ukraine’s already-junk “B3” rating on review for a downgrade.

In this image made from video released by the Russian Presidential Press Service, Russian President…