How will Russia’s war with Ukraine end? Here are 5 possible outcomes
Civilians and soldiers with assault rifles during training on March 5, 2022, in Lviv, Ukraine.
Europa Press | Getty Images
Less than two weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the country’s people and armed forces continue to mount a staunch — and undeniably brave — resistance against Russian forces.
But for all Ukraine’s heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia’s military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow’s military might.
What comes next for Ukraine could be bleak, these experts say, with many expecting a long and drawn-out conflict, noting that even in the most positive scenario — that Russia withdraws its troops and Ukraine remains a sovereign nation — Europe is unlikely to return to the pre-war status quo.
CNBC takes a look at the possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen in each of them:
1. Patchy control
Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow’s and the West’s next moves unpredictable.
However it’s widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin, loathing Ukraine’s current pro-Western government and aspirations to join the EU and NATO, wants to install a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv.
Just how and when (and if) that happens is uncertain but Eurasia Group’s base-case scenario for the next three months is for Russia to gain “patchy control of eastern Ukraine, up to the Dnipro River, and a Russian-backed puppet government is established,” and for Russian forces to take the capital Kyiv after a protracted siege.
Eurasia Group’s Chairman Cliff Kupchan and colleagues added in a note Thursday that “a rump Ukrainian state” is likely to be led from Lviv, a city in Ukraine’s west and near the border with Poland, with the semi-exiled government likely to receive “heavy western support.”
The analysts predicted refugee flows of 5 million to 10 million people from Ukraine to Western Europe.
Ukrainian soldiers help an elderly woman to cross a destroyed bridge as she evacuates the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, on March 7, 2022.
Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
In such a scenario, Eurasia Group predicted that NATO, which has so far refused to intervene militarily in the conflict (Ukraine is not a member of the military alliance), would provide “significant military assistance to the western Ukrainian state and materiel [military materials and equipment] to support insurgency in eastern Ukraine.” But they added that this could lead to the risk of airborne clashes between Russian and NATO aircraft.
Russia’s military strategy has at times been beset with logistical problems, confusing the picture of what Russia’s main or immediate goals are.
To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24…
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