Gasoline prices hit $6 in parts of the U.S. and summer driving isn’t

Gasoline prices have been fluctuating but are likely to keep moving sporadically higher, and more drivers could pay over $5 and even $6 a gallon for unleaded in the peak summer driving season.

The national average for unleaded gasoline Thursday was $4.23 per gallon, down five cents from a week earlier and 10 cents below the recent all-time high, according to AAA. But analysts expect prices at the pump to start rising even more, with the jump this week in oil prices and the rising price of gasoline in the futures market.

“I think $5 could easily be achieved here if the situation continues to worsen,” said John Kilduff, a partner with Again Capital. “In California, I’ve seen $7 at some stations.”

California drivers have been hardest hit, paying an average $5.88 per gallon of unleaded statewide, in part because of higher taxes and the unique blend of West Coast fuels. According to AAA, drivers in Los Angeles county are paying an average $6.03 per gallon. Nevada prices are averaging $5.17 per gallon, while Washington state’s average is $4.72 per gallon.

With the exception of Illinois, at $4.49, the lowest prices are in the Midwest and South. Prices in Texas and Iowa are averaging $3.88 per gallon, and Ohio and Georgia are at $3.99 per gallon, according to AAA.

Some states have rolled back gas taxes or are considering doing so. Connecticut plans to put a three-month moratorium on its 25 cents per gallon gas tax starting April 1.

Maryland last week suspended its 36 cents per gallon gasoline tax, and its average price for unleaded at the pump is now $3.79 per gallon, well below the $4.31 per gallon in neighboring Pennsylvania, a state with a high gas tax. Georgia is also suspending its gasoline tax.

Legislation has been proposed by Democrats in the U.S. Senate and House to temporarily lift an 18.4-cent per gallon federal gas tax. Those proposals have been referred to committees.

How high can prices go?

Gasoline prices have fallen from a record $4.33 nationally per gallon of unleaded on March 11. Gasoline prices declined as oil prices dipped, but crude has moved higher again and analysts say gasoline prices could too.

How high prices at the pump can go is hard to say, particularly in the peak summer driving season between Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. Analysts say that will depend on oil prices, which have been fluctuating as the world scrambles to replace Russian oil exports.

“The honest answer is I have no idea,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS. “I think on the West Coast we could see prices close to $6 a gallon. I think for the rest of the country, I’m in the $4.25 to $4.75 camp.”

Gaps in refining

Kloza said this is a gap year for the global refining industry, with some lost capacity and more planned refining operations about to come on line.

There is about 1.2 million barrels a day…