The Nord Stream 2 pipeline lies abandoned after Russia invaded

One of the early casualties of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and its continuing geopolitical and economic fallout — has been the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, a massive energy project that took several years to build and cost $11 billion.

Even before Russia’s unprovoked onslaught, the signs were not good for the 1,234-kilometer offshore pipeline — designed to double the flow of gas between Russia and Germany. Now, the major infrastructure project is looking, as one analyst put it, “killed off.”

The laying of the pipeline started in 2018 but faced several stumbling blocks, becoming something of a geopolitical pinball in Europe and the U.S. before it was finally completed in September 2021.

By November last year, however, there were further signs of trouble brewing when the German energy regulator temporarily halted the certification process that would allow it to start operating the pipeline. The suspension came as Russia was amassing tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine’s border (although the regulator cited legalities as a reason for the suspension).

The final nail in Nord Stream 2’s coffin came in February following Russia’s fateful decision to formally recognize two pro-Russian, breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. That prompted the German government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz to stop the certification process altogether.

As we all now know, Russia’s recognition of the breakaway republics in the Donbas was a precursor to its larger invasion of Ukraine that began on Feb. 24.

The war that has ensued has thrown Europe into a geopolitical crisis not seen in years and has put joint projects and business partnerships between (and in) Russia and Europe — like Nord Stream 2 — on a cliff-edge.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has killed off the Nord Stream 2 project. In short, it would be unthinkable for Germany or any other European country to do a U-turn and authorize the pipeline after Russia’s behavior,” Kristine Berzina, senior fellow and head of the geopolitics team at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told CNBC Wednesday.

“Even functioning pipelines have a shaky future in Europe,” Berzina noted, while for Nord Stream 2, “the pipeline is frozen in its inactive state. Besides ensuring the safety and stability of the structure, I do not anticipate other uses for it.”

Russia’s invasion has accelerated the EU’s shift away from Russian energy with the bloc saying it will slash Russian gas imports by two-thirds by the end of 2022, and that it plans to end its reliance on Russian fossil fuel imports by 2030.

Russia has responded by threatening to halt gas exports to perceived “unfriendly” countries if payments for gas are not made in rubles as opposed to euros or dollars. The Group of Seven industrialized…