Why Putin is refocusing troops in the east of Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin is overseeing a change in military strategy to the Kremlin’s unprovoked onslaught in Ukraine, repositioning forces in the east of the country in a bid to take control of the Donbas region.

Analysts see the shift in Russia’s approach as a tacit acknowledgment of failure, saying fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces has thwarted Putin’s attempt to swiftly capture major cities and topple the government.

The next phase of the war is likely to result in a dangerous stalemate, according to analysts, exacerbating an already devastating humanitarian crisis as Russia’s top army commanders seek to establish full control over the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister on Wednesday urged people in the eastern regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk to evacuate amid growing fears of an imminent attack. “It is necessary now, because then people will be under fire and threatened with death,” Iryna Vereshchuk said.

It comes less than two weeks after Sergei Rudskoy, deputy chief of staff of Russia’s Armed Forces, announced that troops were shifting away from a countrywide attack. Instead, Rudskoy said the Kremlin’s goal was to concentrate efforts on the “complete liberation” of the Donbas region.

“It seems to me that this is the biggest single piece of news since the war began,” Christopher Granville, managing director of EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC via telephone. “I thought it at the time, and I haven’t changed my mind … since then.”

Granville said Russia’s reconcentration of troops in the east of Ukraine foreshadows “some all too plausible horrors.” He cited particular concern for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two sizable cities situated in the north of the Donetsk Oblast.

Thousands of people have been trying to flee the Donbas region, with scores of families seen queuing for days at Kramatorsk’s central rail station in an attempt to reach safety.

For some, the situation is all too familiar.

Ukrainian forces fought Russian-backed separatists in Kramatorsk in 2014, and Granville said the nearby city of Slovyansk was known to have “totemic significance” for the Donbas separatists.

Russia has not yet committed forces withdrawn from the so-called Battle of Kyiv to an eastern offensive, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, but troops are thought to be preparing for an attack on Slovyansk.

“I think from a military point of view, there has to be a question about success and morale. Russia, having soldiers sitting around Kyiv being shot at, what is the purpose? What are they trying to do?” Granville said.

“It’s just common sense that soldiering needs to have a goal, and the natural goal for soldering is to get…