Asia winners and losers in Russia-Ukraine war: commodities, weapons
Global prices for some grains have spiked since the Russia-Ukraine war started, with both countries contributing a significant percentage of the world’s supply for some of those commodities such as wheat.
Vincent Mundy | Bloomberg | Getty Images
From food prices to tourism and weapons supply, Asia-Pacific countries could be hit hard by the Russia-Ukraine war, even if they are not directly exposed to the conflict, according to a new Economic Intelligence Unit report.
Food prices are particularly sensitive to the war as both countries are significant commodity producers, according to the research firm. Some Asian countries rely on commodities such as fertilizer from Russia, and a global shortage is already driving up prices of agriculture and grains.
Given the region’s relatively high levels of dependence on energy and agricultural commodity imports – even if countries don’t source directly from Russia or Ukraine, the spike in prices will be concerning, warned the EIU.
“Niche dependencies include reliance on Russia and Ukraine as a source of fertiliser and grain in South-east and South Asia, which could cause disruption in the agricultural sector,” said the firm.
The world’s major powers have hit Russia with wide-ranging sanctions over Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on energy, while the U.K. plans to do so by the end of the year. The European Union is also considering whether to do the same.
There will be export benefits for some countries from higher commodity prices and a global search for alternative supply.
Economic Intelligence Unit
Sanctions have also been slapped on the country’s oligarchs, banks, state enterprises, and sovereign bonds.
“North-east Asia — home to the world’s leading chipmakers — also has some exposure to any disruption in the supply of rare gases used in semiconductor production,” EIU said in its report.
Other areas that may be impacted include Russian tourists preferring to stay away, as well as some Asia-Pacific countries that may be cut off from Russian weapons.
Winners and losers from commodity spikes
Global prices for oil, gas and grains have already spiked since the war started in late February.
Russia and Ukraine contribute a significant percentage of the world’s supply for some of those commodities.
Wheat futures pared some gains from the initial spike, but are still up 65% compared to a year ago. Corn futures are up over 40% in the same period.
Some countries will be vulnerable to the price surge, but others may benefit.
“There will be export benefits for some countries from higher commodity prices and a global search for alternative supply,” said EIU.
Besides food and energy, nickel supply has also been hit as Russia is the world’s third-largest supplier of nickel.
Countries that will benefit from higher commodity prices:
- Coal exporters: Australia, Indonesia, Mongolia
- Crude oil exporters: Malaysia, Brunei
- Liquefied natural gas: Australia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea
- Nickel suppliers:…
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