What it means if Helsinki joins the alliance

Finland could be about to announce that it’s joining the military alliance NATO — in what would mark a dramatic U-turn for its foreign policy and potentially anger Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Nordic nation shares a 808-mile land border with Russia and has carefully walked a foreign policy tightrope between Moscow and the West for many decades. Finland adopted a neutrality policy during the Cold War, meaning it would avoid confrontation with Russia. And in the early stages of World War II, the Finns successfully repelled a Soviet invasion in what became known as the “Winter War.”

But its long-standing neutrality, cherished by many Finns, could be about to end due to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told CNBC that Finland’s accession to NATO would put an end to the idea of “forced neutrality between East and West.”

“This highlights how Russia’s atrocious actions in Ukraine have forced previous neutral countries to commit fully to NATO in the ‘you are either fully with us, or we will not protect you’,” he said.

Russia has repeatedly stated that it’s against any enlargement of NATO, which was one of the reasons given by the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, had been vocal about his desire to join the alliance before the invasion, but has since conceded that it’s now unlikely.

Opinion polls show that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, a majority of Finns are now in favor of joining NATO. Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said Thursday that “definitely” Finland would be applying for NATO membership in mid-May.

NATO would likely benefit from Finland’s geographical location and military capabilities. Its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has already said the country would be warmly welcomed.