Here’s everything the Federal Reserve is expected to do today

There’s not a lot of mystery surrounding Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, with markets widely expecting the central bank to approve its third consecutive three-quarter point interest rate hike.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t considerable intrigue, though.

While the Fed almost certainly will deliver what the market has ordered, it has plenty of other items on its docket that will catch Wall Street’s attention.

Here’s a quick rundown of what to expect from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting:

Rates: In its continuing quest to tackle runaway inflation, the Fed almost certainly will approve a 0.75 percentage point hike that will take its benchmark rate up to a target range of 3%-3.25%. That’s the highest the fed funds rate has been since early 2008. Markets are pricing in a slight chance for a full 1 percentage point hike, something the Fed has never done since it started using the fed funds rate as its primary policy tool in 1990.

Economic outlook: Part of this week’s meeting will see Fed officials issue their quarterly update of their interest rate and economic outlook. While the Summary of Economic Projections is not an official forecast, it does provide insight into where policymakers see various metrics and interest rates heading. The SEP includes estimates for GDP, unemployment and inflation as gauged by the personal consumption expenditures price index.

The “dot plot” and the “terminal rate”: Investors will be most closely watching the so-called dot-plot of individual members’ rate projections for the rest of 2022 and subsequent years, with this meeting’s version extending for the first time into 2025. Included in that will be the projection for the “terminal rate,” or the point where officials think they can stop raising rates, which could be the most market-moving event of the meeting. In June, the committee put the terminal rate at 3.8%; it’s likely to be at least half a percentage point higher following this week’s meeting.

Powell presser: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold his usual news conference following the conclusion of the two-day meeting. In his most notable remarks since the last meeting in July, Powell delivered a short, sharp address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in late August emphasizing his commitment to bringing down inflation and in particular his willingness to inflict “some pain” on the economy to make that happen.

New kids on the block: One slight wrinkle at this meeting is the input of three relatively new members: Governor Michael S. Barr and regional presidents Lorie Logan of Dallas and Susan Collins of Boston.
Collins and Barr attended the previous meeting in July, but this will be their first SEP and dot plot. While individual names are not attached to projections, it will be interesting to see…