Oil prices could soon return to $100 a barrel, analysts say
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start of the coronavirus pandemic this week, a historic move that energy analysts say could push oil prices back toward triple digits.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers, a group often referred to as OPEC+, will meet in Vienna, Austria, on Wednesday to decide on the next phase of production policy.
The oil cartel and its allies are considering an output cut of more than a million barrels per day, according to OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters.
“The OPEC ministers are not going to come to Austria for the first time in two years to do nothing. So there’s going to be a cut of some historic kind,” Dan Pickering, CIO of Pickering Energy Partners, said, referring to the group’s first in-person meeting since 2020.
However, Pickering said he expects the actual number of barrels coming off the market will likely be around 500,000, which is “going to be enough to support the market in the near term.”
Oil prices rose around 4% on Monday morning.
International benchmark Brent crude futures popped 4% to $88.54 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 4.2% to trade at $82.83 per barrel.
Crude oil storage tanks at the Juaymah Tank Farm in Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Oct. 1, 2018. OPEC+ is mulling slashing output of more than a million barrels per day, according to sources. The move would mark the biggest undertaken by the organization to address weakness in global demand.
Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said Monday that there appeared to be some upside potential for oil prices after heavy losses across the board in September.
“A further uptick in trading activity coupled with tightening near-term oil fundamentals could well push oil prices back to $100/bbl,” Brennock said in a research note.
“Those of a bullish disposition have endured a summer of pain, but a winter of hope and expectation is on the horizon,” he added.
Echoing this call of a return to $100 a barrel, analysts at Goldman Sachs see Brent reaching triple digits over the next three months, before climbing to $105 over a six-month horizon.
The U.S. investment bank expects WTI to jump to $95 by around year-end, before hitting $100 over the next six months.
OPEC has resolve to support prices
OPEC+ is signaling that their support of oil prices will not happen at around $50 to $60 per barrel, Pickering said.
“It’s going to happen much higher, and they’re showing a resolve to protect price. They’re less worried about demand.”
Despite what people will say, we’re gonna see some pretty sticky energy inflation as we move forward over the next couple of years.
Dan Pickering
CIO, Pickering Energy Partners
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