Midterms 2022 top Senate races: Oz, Walker, Vance, Kelly

The battle for control of the U.S. Senate could hinge on a single race.

A handful of make-or-break Senate elections in key states are only growing more competitive as candidates barrel toward the Nov. 8 midterm elections. Only a few contests could determine how the Senate handles policy — and President Joe Biden’s nominees for key posts — for the rest of the president’s first term.

Republicans were considered favorites to win control of the upper chamber of Congress heading into the year. Democrats now appear slightly more likely to hold the majority in January.

Democrats hold the slimmest possible majority in the Senate, a reality that at times has reined in Biden’s most ambitious policy goals. The chamber is split 50-50, and Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.

Biden’s presence in the White House could make his party’s bid to hold the Senate more difficult: the president’s party historically struggles in midterm elections. While Biden’s approval rating has climbed from the lowest points of his term, most voters polled still disapprove of the job he is doing as Americans struggle with high inflation, among other issues.

Biden‘s party reshaped its national campaign messaging after the Supreme Court overturned longstanding abortion rights in June. The court’s contentious and unpopular ruling seemed to upend the midterms overnight, handing Democrats a powerful tool to stoke turnout among voters outraged at the conservative court and its supporters in government.

In another potential boon for Democrats, a handful of Republicans saddled with political baggage, but backed by former President Donald Trump, won their party’s primaries over more mainstream alternatives. Democrats in multiple key races now face Republicans with little or no political experience, extreme policy views or scandalous personal lives, all of which could make them less appealing to general-election voters.

Of the 34 seats up for grabs in the midterms, here are the ones that could decide Senate control:

One of the most competitive and closely-watched races of the cycle pits Democratic Lt. Gov. Fetterman against Trump-backed Republican celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz. They are vying for the open Senate seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.

Fetterman, the progressive former mayor of Braddock, has led Oz in the polls even after a May stroke took him off the campaign trail for months. The 6-foot-8 former college football player’s towering stature and dressed-down look have aided his campaign’s efforts to contrast him from Oz, a multimillionaire TV star whom it has attacked as an out-of-touch elitist and carpetbagger from New Jersey.

The Oz campaign, aided by tens of millions of dollars from Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell’s PAC, has bombarded Fetterman with ads accusing him of being soft on crime. Oz and his staffers have also sowed doubts about…