Abortion rights on ballot in California, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont

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Voters in California, Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont will decide during the midterm elections whether abortion is protected under their state constitutions.

But Michigan and Kentucky are shaping up as the two biggest battlegrounds on abortion in the midterms. Michigan is poised to become a safe haven of constitutionally protected abortion rights in the Midwest, where access is shrinking.

Kentucky, on the other hand, is set to entrench its abortion ban unless reproductive rights activists pull off an upset victory in the conservative Southern state.

“When changing the constitution, you’re thinking about the future — putting in place protections that will last decades and perhaps hundreds of years,” said Elizabeth Nash, principal policy associate for state issues at the Guttmacher Institute.

The Supreme Court upended U.S. politics in June when it overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling, which protected abortion as a constitutional right nationwide for nearly 50 years. A dozen states swiftly banned the procedure in the wake of the high court’s ruling.

Democrats have made abortion rights central to their campaign to maintain control of Congress and expand their majorities in the midterms. President Joe Biden has vowed to codify Roe v. Wade through law if voters elect more Democratic senators and the party keeps the House.

But Americans appear more concerned with the economy. Just 10% of voters said abortion was the most important issue ahead of Tuesday’s midterms while 36% said inflation matters the most, according to a November Quinnipiac Poll.

Right now, Democrats and Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate, while most analysts believe the GOP will retake the House. This means reinstating abortion rights at the federal level is unlikely in the near term. As a consequence, the battle over abortion will likely continue to play out at the state level for the foreseeable future.

Here’s what you need to know about Tuesday’s referendums.