Meat bans and ‘un-Brexit’? One bank’s ‘outrageous’ 2023 predictions

Saxo Bank’s “outrageous predictions” for 2023 include a ban on meat production, skyrocketing gold prices and Britain voting to “un-Brexit.”

The Danish bank’s annual report, published earlier this month, expects global economies to shift into “war economy” mode, “where sovereign economic gains and self-reliance trump globalisation.”

The forecasts, while not representative of the bank’s official views, looked at how decisions from policymakers next year could impact both the global economy and the political agenda.

Gold to hit $3,000

Among the bank’s “outrageous” calls for next year, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen predicted the price of spot gold could exceed $3,000 per ounce in 2023 – around 67% higher than its current price of about $1,797 per ounce.

The report puts its forecasted surge down to three factors: “an increasing war economy mentality” that makes gold more appealing than foreign reserves, a big investment in new national security priorities, and increasing global liquidity as policymakers try to avoid debt debacles in their respective recessions.

“I would not be surprised to see commodity driven economies wanting to go to gold because of a lack of better alternatives,” Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Dec. 6.

“I think gold is going to fly,” he added.

While analysts are expecting an increase in the price of gold in 2023, a surge of that magnitude is unlikely, according to global commodities intelligence company CRU.

“Our price expectations are much more moderate,” Kirill Kirilenko, a senior analyst at CRU, told CNBC.

“A less hawkish Fed is likely to lead to a weaker USD, which could in turn give gold bulls more breathing space and energy to stage a rally next year, lifting prices closer to $1,900 per ounce,” he said. 

Kirilenko highlighted, however, that it’s all dependent on moves by the Federal Reserve. “Any hint of increasing ‘hawkishness’ from the US central bank would likely pressure gold prices lower,” he said.

Britain will vote to un-Brexit

The “outrageous prediction” most likely to occur next year, according to Saxo’s Jakobsen, is for there to be another referendum on Brexit.

“I actually think it’s one of the things that will have a high probability,” he told CNBC.

Saxo Market Strategist Jessica Amir said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt may take Conservative Party ratings to “unheard-of lows” as their “brutal fiscal programme throws the UK into a crushing recession.” 

This, the bank forecasted, could prompt the English and Welsh public to rethink the Brexit vote, with younger voters leading the way, and force Sunak to call a general election.