It’s been a tough start to 2023 for shareholders of Linde (LIN). The industrial gas giant was a relative winner in 2022 with its stock declining roughly 5% compared to the S & P 500 ‘s drop of around 19.4%. But the new year has not been so kind with three straight down sessions, including nasty pullbacks Tuesday and Thursday. For such a high-quality company with a track record for delivering consistent, double-digit earnings growth, this is not the stock price performance we have come to know for Linde. Let’s take a look at some of the recent news that’s negatively impacting the company to figure out if this pullback is a buying opportunity. Russia freezing Linde assets First off, while U.S. markets were closed to observe the New Year holiday, Reuters reported Monday that a Russian court froze about $488 million of Linde assets. The legal action was at the request of a Russian joint venture that Linde stopped working on. The halt in the business relationship was done to comply with European Union sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine. Long story short, Linde was prepaid $1.8 billion for work on a project, and Russian energy giant Gazprom is suing Linde to get that money back. It’s all pretty technical, but here’s what an analyst at BMO Capital Markets said about the news: “High level, we view this as a negotiation tactic tied to LIN’s suspension of the project and the eventual settlement of accounts. As a reminder, LIN holds ~$1.8B of cash/payments from Gazprom and its partners for the Ust-Luga gas complex (LIN lists this as a liability on its bal sheet). With LIN having stopped work on the project, it will be expected to return the $1.8B of proceeds minus the hours worked and the value of the equipment (both currently being negotiated). The freezing of the assets and valuing them at $488mm is simply part of that ‘negotiation.'” We’re not in the business of trying to predict the legal outcome or how negotiations will go, but what you do need to know is that Linde lost about $3.9 billion of market value Tuesday, as traders in the U.S. got their first chance to react to the news. That’s far beyond the value of what Linde was paid to complete this project. Therefore, we see the recent pullback as an overreaction. The next question is does any of this matter to future earnings? The answer here is no. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Linde suspended business in Russia and announced plans to scale back operations. This means Russia has zero impact to forward earnings per share; it was excluded from Linde’s full-year 2022 guide and should not be factored into any analyst estimates for 2023 earnings. Again, we think the news was an overreaction. Upcoming Frankfurt delisting vote There is a second factor likely contributing to some of Linde’s declines over the past few days and it is harder to quantify. It relates to management’s proposal to delist from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Linde is currently listed on two different stock exchanges: the…
Read More: Why Linde shares dropped so much this week but why we still like it