We’re revising price targets on 5 stocks and adding to the bullpen

On Mar 24, 2023

The Club on Friday is updating five price targets for stocks in the portfolio to reflect recent developments at the companies and broader macroeconomic trends. We’re also adding a new stock to the bullpen, while reiterating our support for Morgan Stanley amid the recent upheaval in the banking sector. Meta We’re increasing our price target on Meta Platforms (META) to $220 per share, from $195. This new target represents about 18-times 2024 earnings estimates. Over the last two months, analysts have steadily increased their earnings estimates on Meta, and the stock has appreciated alongside those revisions to above our previous target. Since Jan. 31, the day before Meta announced fourth-quarter results , the consensus earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate for 2023 has moved up about 24%, to $10, from $8.08 per share. For 2024, the consensus EPS estimate has risen 2%, to $12.39, from $10.14 a share. The driving forces behind those analyst revisions are the company’s emphasis on improving efficiency through a second round of layoffs , controlling its costs by reducing its 2023 expenses outlook and, most recently, signs of so-called green shoots at its advertising business for its family of applications. That’s a result of the continued monetization of its Reels short-form video offering on Facebook and Instagram, along with the easing of ad-targeting headwinds. The two fundamental ingredients that drive higher stock prices are earnings and the valuation multiple investors are willing to pay for those earnings. Generally, higher earnings are our preference of the two. Sometimes multiple expansion is just a great fool theory. In essence, you are buying a stock because you think someone else will pay more for it in the future. But when earnings are up, it’s because the value of the company is increasing. With estimates pushing higher, we think the rally in META still has more room to run, prompting us to raise our price target. Nvidia We’re increasing our price target on Nvidia (NVDA) to $300 per share, from $240. This new target puts Nvidia’s valuation at a pricey 67-times the consensus EPS estimate for next year. But the chipmaker is uniquely worthy of such a premium because it is the unrivaled leader in accelerated computing and artificial intelligence (AI), which is finally at an inflection point after having what CEO Jensen Huang called its “iPhone moment.” Nvidia has previously said generative AI — which includes applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT — has a total addressable market of $600 billion split between hardware and software. Indeed, with the channel inventory correction in gaming largely behind Nvidia and new orders for its H100 graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerating to support generative AI, it’s likely that earnings estimates this year are too low. Energy We’re reducing our price targets on Coterra Energy (CTRA), Devon Energy (DVN), and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) to reflect the lower prices of both oil and natural gas….