Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) posted solid first-quarter results after the bell Wednesday, thanks to higher-than-expected energy production. Free cash flow, however, was a slight miss. It was also a bittersweet evening as CEO Scott Sheffield said he will retire at the end of the year after more than two decades collectively at the helm. Pioneer’s oil and gas revenue fell 19% year-over-year, to $3.17 billion, missing analysts’ forecasts of $3.7 billion, according to Refinitiv. But this may not be an accurate comparison as we think the analyst estimates include oil and gas plus other income items. Pioneer’s adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) declined 32.7% on an annual basis to $5.21, topping expectations of $4.91. Unlike most companies that hold their earnings conference calls with analysts and investors the day they report, Pioneer hosts its quarterly calls the next day — so Thursday at 10 a.m. ET. Bottom line Overall the quarter looks fine to us with production coming in at the high end of guidance. But, the big news was Sheffield’s retirement announcement and that Rich Dealy, the company’s President and COO, will become the new CEO on Jan. 1, 2024. After his exit, Sheffield is expected to remain on Pioneer’s board. This change in leadership is significant because it comes at a time when buyout rumors are swirling around the company. Is the company more likely to sell to Exxon Mobil (XOM) with Sheffield no longer running the show? Or does the appointment of Dealy, who brings more than 30 years of experience at Pioneer and its predecessor, mean the company is not for sale? The quick appointment of a new leader suggests no deal is coming soon. As a result, it’s not surprising to see Pioneer trading down roughly 2.5% at around $217.50 per share in after-hours trading. PXD YTD mountain Pioneer Natural Resources YTD Capital allocation Another reason for the selling pressure on the stock could be from income-oriented investors. Pioneer set its second-quarter base plus variable dividend at $3.34 a share – factoring in a base dividend of $1.25, which was raised 14% from $1.10, and a variable dividend of $2.09. On an annualized basis, the new yield moves down to 6% based on Wednesday’s closing price. A far cry from the 10% dividend yield we’ve come to know and love from Pioneer, but there’s a reason behind it. Management wants more flexibility to repurchase shares instead of paying a huge variable dividend. Buybacks are actually more valuable nowadays if you think oil prices are going higher in the future. Pioneer announced it’s refining its peer-leading capital return framework. The company continues to expect to return at least 75% of quarterly free cash flow to shareholders, but after paying the (now raised) base dividend, management will allocate what remains within the 75% to variable dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. This means that Pioneer will likely shift what previously went to the variable dividend into share…
Read More: Pioneer (PXD) beats on Q1 earnings, announces succession, tweaks