Consumers might just prevent a U.S. recession

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

U.S. stocks rebound
Major U.S. indexes rose Tuesday in a tech-fueled rally, shaking off their multiday losing streaks. However, U.S. futures dipped slightly in overnight trading. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Wednesday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added around 1% after May’s inflation reading was lower than expected. By contrast, China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.5%, and the yuan slipped, after an 18.8% year-over-year plunge in China’s industrial profits for the first five months of 2023.

Recession warning
The U.S. will slip into recession in the fourth quarter this year, and will continue languishing in it for 2024, according to HSBC Asset Management. Additionally, the euro zone will join the U.S. in seeing its economy contract next year. The silver lining of this forecast: Inflation will fall quickly, and HSBC expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by the end of this year.

Higher rates for longer
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said inflation in the euro zone is still “too high and is set to remain so for too long.” In May, headline inflation was 6.1% for the region, lower than April’s reading of 7% but still three times the ECB’s target of 2%. Lagarde warned that it’s unlikely the ECB will pause rates, let alone cut them, anytime soon.

The fourth industrial revolution
Generative artificial intelligence isn’t hype — it’s the “fourth industrial revolution playing out,” said Dan Ives, managing director of Wedbush Securities. Ives believes AI will transform the way we live and work — and it’s already ushering in the “start of a new tech bull market.” In a separate but related note, Unity shares jumped over 15% after the company launched a marketplace for artificial intelligence software.

[PRO] Seth Klarman on markets
Legendary investor Seth Klarman of Baupost Group spoke with CNBC Tuesday in an exclusive interview. Two highlights: Klarman pointed out one of the most common mistakes regular investors commit when buying index funds and identified a “hunting ground” for investors looking for opportunities. Watch the full interview here.