Turbulence is getting worse as the planet warms

Turbulence during a flight can be an uncomfortable experience for many, ranging from mild bumpiness to more serious instances of damaged airplanes and injured passengers.

With millions of people jetting off on their summer vacations, a recent study from researchers in England provides some challenging, but important, reading.

According to the analysis, which was published in Geophysical Research Letters in June, clear-air turbulence (CAT) became increasingly prevalent in certain parts of the world between 1979 and 2020.

Related to wind shear, clear-air turbulence presents a specific challenge to pilots because it’s tricky to identify ahead of time and can appear without warning.

The World Meteorological Organization, for example, says CAT “often — though not necessarily always — occurs in the absence of cloud, making it difficult to detect visually.”

In an announcement accompanying the report’s release, the University of Reading laid out some of the researchers’ key findings.

“At a typical point over the North Atlantic — one of the world’s busiest flight routes — the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020,” it said.

In addition, moderate turbulence jumped from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, while light turbulence hit 546.8 hours, up from 466.5.

The university went on to state that warmer air from carbon dioxide emissions “is increasing windshear in the jet streams, strengthening clear-air turbulence in the North Atlantic and globally.”

The paper’s authors say their research “represents the best evidence yet that CAT has increased over the past four decades, consistent with the expected effects of climate change.”

Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading and co-author of the study, spoke to CNBC and provided some context to the findings.

“[This] doesn’t necessarily mean planes are encountering turbulence, clear air turbulence, 55% more often because, of course, planes try and avoid it and they’ve been getting very good at avoiding it,” he said.

There is, however, “more turbulence in the atmosphere, full stop.”

“I think … it’s hard to believe that there could be 55% more turbulence in the atmosphere and for planes not to be encountering it more,” Williams said. He also made it clear that the report analyzed atmospheric observations rather than directly looking at aircraft measurements of turbulence.