Club holding Caterpillar (CAT) delivered another strong quarter before the opening bell Tuesday, sparking a much-deserved rally of more than 8% to an all-time high above $287 per share. Revenue in the second quarter increased 22% year over year to $17.32 billion, exceeding estimates of $16.49 billion, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 75% to $5.55, well ahead of estimates of $4.58. Profit margin performance was well ahead of expectations, with operating income beating across all of the company’s product segments. CAT 5Y mountain Caterpillar 5-year performance Bottom line Strong headline results at Caterpillar were met with a very bullish conference call — giving shares another jolt to the upside, thanks to positive commentary on the operating environment and growth drivers for the remainder of the year. In addition to strong quarterly sales, Caterpillar’s backlog increased to $30.7 billion. That represents a $300 million quarter-over-quarter gain and a $2.2 billion year-over-year surge. Despite strong results in the first quarter, shares sold off on concerns that the backlog, which was flat versus the fourth quarter, indicating that the strongest demand was in the rearview mirror. At the time, we never bought into that notion because there was too much infrastructure spending coming down the pipe. In Tuesday’s results, we’re starting to see that money flow through to the backlog. Indeed, management told us as much on the call that they “expect continued growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects.” How fast those orders come in will depend on the timeline to obtain permits, but the team does expect the order momentum to “last for some time.” Combined with commentary around dealer inventories and end market dynamics, this infrastructure potential gives us confidence in sustained demand through the end of the year and into 2024. While forward guidance wasn’t expressly given, management made clear that business has improved over the past three months, with full-year results tracking above where consensus estimates had been coming into the print. This was as good of a quarter as we could have hoped for, with plenty of conviction from management for continued momentum. That said, we told investors during Tuesday’s Morning Meeting that conviction always takes a back seat to discipline. With that view in mind, if not restricted, we would be trimming 25 shares, or a little over 7% of our position, due to the strong stock move higher. In line with that view, we’re maintaining our 2 rating , however, raising our price target to $300 per share, up from $285. Companywide Q2 results All three of Caterpillar’s physical product segments, as indicated in the table above, reported strong year-over-year revenue growth that beat estimates. While Financial Products sales missed the mark, lower…
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