Here’s our Club Mailbag email investingclubmailbag@cnbc.com — so you send your questions directly to Jim Cramer and his team of analysts. We can’t offer personal investing advice. We will only consider more general questions about the investment process or stocks in the portfolio or related industries. Question 1: The stocks in the Trust have astonishingly different P/Es. With this in mind, how can a price target be established for each of them? Thank you. I find the Club to be fascinating. —Marc M. Price targets are part art and part science. While the art portion can be more subjective at times, the most important thing to keep in mind when thinking about the correct multiple to put on a stock is the “comp,” meaning the thing we are comparing that stock to. The two primary comps are going to be the peer group (those companies most similar to the one in question) and the multiple investors paid in the past. What we don’t want to do is think about what the appropriate multiple should be by examining companies that don’t represent an apples-to-apples comparison. A stock’s multiple (and we like looking at the forward multiple) is calculated by dividing the current shares price by earnings estimates for the next 12 months. For example, we wouldn’t look at the multiple investors are willing to pay for Club stocks Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) or Coterra Energy (CTRA) in an attempt to determine the correct multiple for Microsoft (MSFT). We would have to consider the multiples of Pioneer and Coterra in regard to one another (and other U.S.-based exploration and production companies) because both are U.S.-based exploration and production (E & P) companies. We would then consider whether one should or should not demand a higher or lower multiple versus the other. Based on our price targets of $259 for PXD and $30 for CTRA, the forward P/E multiple that we think represents fair value is roughly 12 times for PXD and roughly 11 times for CTRA. That’s below what investors have paid for PXD over the last five years and about in line with what they’ve paid for Coterra in that time frame. Based on our price target of $400 for MSFT, the forward P/E we think represents fair value is about 33 times. That’s several turns above the historic average, but we think it’s justified given the opportunity generative AI represents for Microsoft to charge customers more for their software to help them reduce costs, thanks to the efficiency gains these AI offerings can bring about. Like most investors, we are willing to pay more for the high-growth potential that we see in tech, whereas an oil name investment thesis is more income-oriented via dividends and stock buybacks. Once we have an idea of what these multiples are, we can begin to make adjustments based on the merits of the company in question versus what peers have going for them or what the company looked like in the past. It’s also worth watching the overall market’s multiple to see how much of a…
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