Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the

Germany is once again the “sick man of Europe,” according to Hans-Werner Sinn, president emeritus at the Ifo institute, and the challenges that poses, particularly in terms of the country’s energy strategy, could serve to benefit increasingly popular right-wing parties.

The “sick man of Europe” moniker has resurfaced in recent weeks as manufacturing output continues to stutter in the region’s largest economy and the country grapples with high energy prices. The label was originally used to describe the German economy in 1998 as it navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy.

“It is not a short-term phenomenon,” Sinn told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy on Friday.

It “has to do with the automobile industry, which is the heart of the German industry and many things hinge on that,” he said. Cars were Germany’s main export product last year, accounting for 15.6% of the value of goods sold abroad, federal statistics office data shows.

Germany reported a foreign trade deficit for the first time in decades in May 2022, totaling 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). The country had briefly shifted from a trade surplus to importing more than it exports.

Germany has since returned to a trade surplus, which came to 18.7 billion euros in June 2023, according to the federal statistics office, but exports remain sluggish.

One target currently in the sights of the German government is becoming carbon neutral by 2045. These plans came into sharp focus as Europe looked to detach itself from Russian gas supplies following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and prices shot up.

Some described Germany’s ambitions to move away from Russian gas as “wildly optimistic,” particularly in light of the country’s climate targets.

Speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum, Sinn said a reliance on renewable technologies such as wind and solar would cause a “volatility problem,” which could pose issues for businesses.

“You need to fill [those gaps] with conventional energy so it’s very difficult to have this double structure which we will have to sustain in the future. On the one hand the green volatile energy and on the other hand the conventional energy to fill the gaps,” he said.

“This is double cost. This is high energy cost and this is not good for industry. It is a difficult course.”

Germany could lose 2% to 3% of its current industrial capacity as companies move operations to countries where gas and electricity are cheaper, such as the U.S. or Saudi Arabia, according to a research note released in August by Berenberg.

Uncertainty about energy prices has likely contributed to a “plunge” in business sentiment, Holger…