India’s push toward renewables will not stop coal reliance for 20

There’s little doubt that India has made progress in its transition to renewable energy.

The country’s leaders have been optimistic about its path to net zero, making bold claims that 50% of its power generation will come from renewables by 2030, and 100% by 2070.

However, coal production continues to soar and reliance on the fossil fuel won’t end any time soon as India struggles to find other ways to cool homes down and keep the lights on.  

“India will not be able to survive completely without coal and there is no alternative for India in the coming 10 to 20 years,” said Anil Kumar Jha, former chairman and managing director of Coal India — the world’s largest coal producer.

“If you are hungry and don’t have cake to eat, will you eat bread or die hungry? That is presently what India is doing,” Jha told CNBC. “We don’t have an alternative to generate that amount of electricity, and will have to depend on coal.” 

Fossil fuels, mainly coal, continue to make up 75% of India’s power supply, making it “the only fuel that India has in relative abundance,” said Neshwin Rodrigues, electricity policy analyst at Ember, a global energy think tank.

Effects from climate change have triggered more than 700 heat waves in India over the past five decades, driving up electricity demand as more households purchase air conditioners. 

“India is presently witnessing a rapid surge in electricity demand, driven by the electrification of numerous households, the burgeoning economy, and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, infrastructure development, and cooling systems,” said Sooraj Narayan, Wood Mackenzie’s senior research analyst of power and renewables in Asia Pacific. 

“This heightened power demand necessitates a reliable, cost-effective, and consistent power generation source, which coal currently fulfills,” he highlighted. 

Data from the International Energy Agency showed that electricity consumption in India from air conditioners increased by 21% between 2019 and 2022.

Nearly 10% of the country’s electricity demand comes from space cooling and this will increase ninefold by 2050, the IEA said.

Simultaneously, India’s coal consumption has rapidly increased. 

The country’s coal production rose to 893 million tons in 2022 to 2023, a 14% growth from 778 million tons in 2021 to 2022, according to data from the Ministry of Coal.

Jha estimated coal production could reach 1,335 million tons in 2031 to 2032. 

This raises the question about whether India will be able to reach its 2030 target of achieving 50% of its energy requirements from non-fossil fuel sources….