U.S. crude prices continued to fall Wednesday, settling below $70 per barrel for the first time since early July and at their lowest levels since June. That’s good news for the Federal Reserve in its battle against inflation. While the impact on oil and natural gas stocks has not been as cheery, companies across many other industries stand to gain. At session lows, West Texas Intermediate crude dropped more than 4% Wednesday afternoon to just over $69 a barrel. The U.S. oil benchmark has been drifting lower since late September when WTI settled at its highest levels of the year — at nearly $94 per barrel. Energy , meanwhile, has been the only sector in the S & P 500 in the red since the fourth quarter began Oct. 1 — down about 10.7% compared with the broad market index’s 6% advance. Our only remaining oil and nat gas holding, Coterra Energy (CTRA), has also struggled — losing more than 8% quarter to date, including Wednesday’s more than 2% drop. However, more than two-thirds of our stock portfolio has been higher so far in the fourth quarter. “Oil is the key to this market. If it doesn’t hold $70, I don’t know where the thing goes,” Jim Cramer said earlier Wednesday. “But, boy, is it going the way of the Fed.” In its effort to cool inflation, the central bank has been tightening monetary policy since late 2021 and began aggressively raising interest rates in March 2022. Since then, the fed funds overnight bank lending rate has risen from near-zero to the current range between 5.25% and 5.5%. In early 2023, lower year-over-year oil prices helped slow the rate of consumer inflation, which reached its Covid-era peak at 9.1% in June 2022 . But, as oil climbed higher in the summer and into late September, concerns mounted that crude was once again becoming a thorn in the Fed’s side. With recent data pointing to cooling inflation, including falling energy prices, the market is trying to decide if the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle is done. The odds favor a rate cut as early as the Fed’s policy meeting in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool . @CL.1 YTD mountain The year-to-date performance of West Texas Intermediate crude futures. Oil impacts inflation data in more than just the gasoline prices paid by consumers at the pump. It also figures into corporate transportation and freight costs. If those input costs stay consistently higher, companies may choose to raise prices on the goods they’re making and shipping to protect profit margins. That will eventually show up in inflation readings — and, in theory, require the Fed to keep making policy decisions designed to slow the U.S. economy. The other side of the coin is that lower oil prices can be a boon to both consumers and companies, including those in Jim’s Charitable Trust, the portfolio we use for the Club. The less money people need to spend to fill up their gas tanks, the more cash they have available to spend on other goods and services — a positive for the economy. Similarly, lower…
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