How Blue Origin, SpaceX, Virgin Galactic space race could impact the

The space industry is taking off after decades of stagnation.

Driven largely by the rapidly developing space programs of Elon Musk’s SpaceX and China, the world saw 114 orbital launches in 2018 — the first triple-digit showing since 1990. This year, orbital launches are on track to exceed 130 for the first time since the 1970s. And that count doesn’t include recent suborbital tourism excursions from Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic. 

Between NASA planning its lunar return, SpaceX constructing a massive “megaconstellation” of internet satellites, China crewing a space station and suborbital companies sending crews of tourists to the edge of space, launches may soon become a daily occurrence.

But will the new space boom come at a price to the planet? 

“While we do obviously need space launches and satellites, when it comes to things like space tourism, you start thinking about the environmental impact,” says Ian Whittaker, a lecturer in space physics at Nottingham Trent University in the U.K.

Researchers are scrambling to figure out how the Earth might react to more billowing plumes of rocket exhaust by studying the overall blend of carbon dioxide, soot, alumina and other particles collectively spewed by a proliferating variety of rockets.

So far, the fledgling space industry does not seriously threaten the environment and likely has room to grow. Whether that will change as the new space race accelerates, however, is anyone’s guess.

“I don’t think we know enough at this point to lay out exactly what that future ought to be,” says Martin Ross, an atmospheric scientist at The Aerospace Corp. “We just don’t have that information yet.”

As the world grapples with transitioning away from fossil fuels, the rise of a new industry — especially one involving giant clouds gushing forth from mighty engines — might seem troubling.

Most rockets do emit more planet-warming carbon than many planes. Experiencing a few minutes of weightlessness on Virgin Galactic’s spaceplane will rack up a carbon footprint comparable with flying business class across the Atlantic, and one orbital launch of SpaceX’s upcoming fully reusable Starship will emit as much carbon dioxide as flying a plane continuously for about three years, according to a back-of-the-envelope calculation by Whittaker. 

A spokesperson for Virgin Galactic said the company “is examining opportunities to offset the carbon emissions for future customer flights.” While SpaceX has not commented directly on carbon emissions, Musk has supported a carbon tax policy. Blue Origin has said its New Shepard rocket uses carbon-free fuels like hydrogen and oxygen.

But there are vastly more commercial plane…