The S&P 500 fell 1.7% Monday, its worst day since May.
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The stock market tanked—and a correction may be in the offing. While China Evergrande is getting all the attention, the real problem might be risks to earnings and valuations.
The
S&P 500
dropped 1.7% Monday, and the index is down 3.9% from its all-time high. That may just be the beginning, says Barry Bannister, Stifel’s chief equity strategist, who calls for the S&P 500 to drop as much as 15% this year. “It’s the coalescing of multiple risks in the fourth quarter that cause us to be cautious through September and October,” Bannister says.
While Evergrande gets the headlines, the bigger problem right now might be U.S. earnings. The companies in the S&P 500 are expected to earn $217.95 in 2022, up 9.4% from 2021, but there’s plenty of downside risk.
Supply-chain constraints are hampering companies’ ability to meet sales expectations, while costs continue to rise. Companies from industrial-materials maker PPG Industries (ticker: PPG) to home builder
PulteGroup
(PHM), have announced that sales and profits for 2021 won’t meet expectations. Investors will get a clearer picture of the supply chain issue when companies report their quarterly earnings this fall.
“One question that’s going to start creeping in once we get to the third quarter is how much of the supply chain disruptions and inability to meet demand is going hit companies’ bottom lines,” says Yung Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “That’s becoming much more acute.”
The other risk to profits that markets have largely ignored is higher corporate taxes. Goldman Sachs strategists say 2022 earnings per share on the S&P 500 could fall roughly 5% with a corporate tax hike to 25% from the current 21%—and House Democrats recently proposed an increase to 26.5%. With aggregate 2022 analyst estimates for S&P 500 EPS at $217.95, therefore, EPS could fall to $207. At a current 21 times, the index could drop 5% on a corporate tax hike—assuming the forward earnings multiple remains the same.
There’s a good chance it won’t. One major reason the S&P 500’s average valuation is above its prepandemic level of 19 times—it currently trades at 20.4 times 12-month forward earnings—is because the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.31% from 1.8% before the pandemic. Lower bond yields make future profits more valuable.
There’s…
Read More: Why the Stock Market Tanked Today—and What to Do About It