Forex Today: Risk-Off Sentiment Spreads

Risk-off sentiment is firmly established as the week begins, sending stocks, commodities and risky currencies lower.

• Global stock markets are mostly firmly lower on deteriorating risk sentiment. Declines are sharpest in Chinese markets, but even the S&P 500 Index is trading below its 50-day moving average. Chinese markets are currently gripped by contagion risk from the Chinese property development company Evergrande’s troubles.

• In the Forex market, the risk-off sentiment is boosting the US dollar and the Japanese yen, while the riskier currencies – the commodity currencies AUD, NZD, and CAD – are notably weak, especially the AUD which is very exposed to the Chinese economy. Almost all other currencies are also falling against the USD and JPY. The USD/CHF ended each of the final two days of last week at long-term closing prices. We have a valid long-term bullish trend in the USD. There may be some good opportunities to be long of the USD and JPY for Forex traders today.

• Commodities, metals, and most cryptocurrencies are weak. Silver traded earlier at its lowest level of 2021, below $22.10 per ounce.

• Canada holds a federal election today. Final polls show a neck-and-neck race between the two main parties.

• It is a public holiday tomorrow in China.

• Last week saw the fourth consecutive weekly fall in global new confirmed coronavirus cases after over 2 months of weekly rises, suggesting the global wave driven by the delta variant may have peaked.

• It is estimated that 43.1% of the world’s population has had at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.

• Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 229.2 million with an average case fatality rate of 2.05%.

• The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be increasing most quickly in Armenia, Australia, Austria, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bosnia, Cambodia, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, Philippines, Romania, Serbia, Singapore, Slovenia, and the Ukraine.